TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Adam vs Miroslav Kowolowski 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1141171012511811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:26 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeRadim Adam to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Adam above · Miroslav Kowolowski below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Radim Adam at 64.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Radim Adam 4–1 Miroslav Kowolowski Miroslav Kowolowski has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2664.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Adam
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Adam
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1476 vs Kowolowski 1483
Kowolowski
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 40% vs Kowolowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 40% vs Kowolowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam -1 · Kowolowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Adam) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.50 / Kowolowski 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Adam)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243065
Adam1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 58 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it79% 41 of 52
Kowolowski2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 35 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back25% 11 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeAdam4wins
AwayKowolowski1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderAdam leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam80%4 of 5
AwayKowolowskin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam5Kowolowski0n = 5Adam took 5 of 5
S2Adam4Kowolowski1n = 5Adam took 4 of 5
S3Adam3Kowolowski2n = 5Adam took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricAdamKowolowskiA − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match35.225.4+9.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamKowolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 401 vs 170 / 30851.1%55.2%205 / 401 vs 170 / 308Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.50/Kowolowski 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kowolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 3 · 17:30R. Adam4311751192M. Kowolowski42711112113
WOct 3 · 16:00R. Adam331111113M. Kowolowski229850
WAug 21 · 13:00R. Adam331111113M. Kowolowski158340
WAug 21 · 12:00R. Adam3411111113M. Kowolowski31681161
WMay 6 · 19:30R. Adam331111113M. Kowolowski177370
R. Adam10
WOct 5 · 08:58R. Adam1.61911411113M. Kowolowski2.2011811682LOct 5 · 07:00R. Adam1.834860E. Gebek1.831111113WOct 5 · 06:00M. Blejchar1.5361113682R. Adam2.381161111113LOct 4 · 13:00M. Blejchar1.831111113R. Adam1.835990LOct 4 · 12:30P. Chovanec1.611111123R. Adam2.2099100WOct 4 · 11:30R. Adam2.201111113M. Blejchar1.617760LOct 4 · 10:30L. Velicka1.801111113R. Adam1.919890LOct 3 · 17:30R. Adam1.2811751192M. Kowolowski3.50711112113WOct 3 · 16:00R. Adam1.331111113M. Kowolowski3.259850LOct 3 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5011116143R. Adam1.286911121
M. Kowolowski10
LOct 5 · 08:58R. Adam1.61911411113M. Kowolowski2.2011811682LOct 5 · 07:30M. Kowolowski1.57168551M. Blejchar2.25141111113LOct 5 · 06:30E. Gebek1.671412113M. Kowolowski2.10121090WOct 3 · 17:30R. Adam1.2811751192M. Kowolowski3.50711112113LOct 3 · 16:00R. Adam1.331111113M. Kowolowski3.259850WOct 3 · 15:00R. Guliak2.201311311102M. Kowolowski1.61157119123WOct 3 · 14:30M. Kowolowski1.831311113V. Bosak1.8311650WOct 3 · 12:58M. Kowolowski3.001111113P. Hanel1.367700LOct 3 · 12:30P. Hanel1.4461211113M. Kowolowski2.631110951LOct 3 · 11:30M. Kowolowski3.001171341P. Osvald1.36131111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Adam
Nothing scheduled
M. Kowolowski
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