TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Kowolowski vs Vitezslav Bosak 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311116115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitezslav Bosak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Kowolowski above · Vitezslav Bosak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 57 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Vitezslav Bosak at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Kowolowski 4–6 Vitezslav Bosak Miroslav Kowolowski has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Bosak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Bosak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowolowski 1489 vs Bosak 1463
Kowolowski
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowolowski 40% vs Bosak 80%
Bosak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowolowski 50% vs Bosak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowolowski +1 · Bosak +4
Bosak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Bosak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bosak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowolowski 1.833 / Bosak 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bosak)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13233288
Kowolowski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Bosak1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowolowski4wins
AwayBosak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBosak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowolowski80%4 of 5
AwayBosak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowolowski5Bosak5n = 10split evenly
S2Kowolowski5Bosak5n = 10split evenly
S3Kowolowski2Bosak8n = 10Bosak took 8 of 10
S4Kowolowski4Bosak3n = 7Kowolowski took 4 of 7
S5Kowolowski1Bosak2n = 3Bosak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowolowskiBosakK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.640.5−2.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowolowskiBosakBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 302 vs 189 / 37955.3%49.9%167 / 302 vs 189 / 379Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BosakKowolowski 1.83/Bosak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bosak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kowolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 15:00M. Kowolowski43111011113V. Bosak36912961
LAug 14 · 16:58M. Kowolowski198470V. Bosak331111113
WAug 14 · 16:30M. Kowolowski4011117113V. Bosak27371161
WJul 24 · 15:30M. Kowolowski551213109113V. Bosak521011121182
LJul 14 · 21:28M. Kowolowski4451214131V. Bosak52111016153
WJul 14 · 20:00M. Kowolowski4011711113V. Bosak32611961
LApr 18 · 17:13M. Kowolowski2212640V. Bosak361411113
LApr 18 · 16:30M. Kowolowski46111141192V. Bosak49138116113
LApr 2 · 21:30M. Kowolowski4111142682V. Bosak549121111113
LApr 2 · 19:30M. Kowolowski2688100V. Bosak341111123
M. Kowolowski10
WOct 3 · 15:00R. Guliak2.201311311102M. Kowolowski1.61157119123WOct 3 · 12:58M. Kowolowski3.001111113P. Hanel1.367700LOct 3 · 12:30P. Hanel1.4461211113M. Kowolowski2.631110951LOct 3 · 11:30M. Kowolowski3.001171341P. Osvald1.36131111113WOct 3 · 10:30P. Bajtek1.831011731M. Kowolowski1.8312911113LSep 29 · 21:30T. Milota2.1081111113M. Kowolowski1.67111521LSep 29 · 20:00P. Hanel1.831111123M. Kowolowski1.8394100WSep 29 · 19:00I. Taichman2.20511771M. Kowolowski1.6111411113WSep 29 · 18:30M. Kowolowski1.8311115113T. Milota1.83391161LSep 27 · 13:30P. Osvald1.3511913133M. Kowolowski2.9071111111
V. Bosak10
WOct 3 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5011116143R. Adam1.286911121WOct 3 · 09:29V. Bosak1.83111189113T. Milkov1.8351111182WOct 3 · 08:00T. Milkov1.8385111162V. Bosak1.83111199113WOct 3 · 07:00I. Taichman1.678990V. Bosak2.101111113WOct 3 · 06:30V. Bosak1.80101111113F. Zurek1.91129821LSep 22 · 20:59V. Bosak1.916670M. Jasek1.801111113WSep 22 · 20:00V. Bosak1.361111113R. Guliak3.007760LSep 22 · 19:30J. Peter2.008111311113V. Bosak1.73111311482LSep 22 · 18:00V. Bosak1.83111161072M. Jasek1.83491112113LSep 20 · 17:30V. Bosak1.738530M. Koral2.001111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Kowolowski
Nothing scheduled
V. Bosak
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