TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vitezslav Bosak vs Radim Adam 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161196111412––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched: 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeRadim Adam to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitezslav Bosak above · Radim Adam below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-12
Point 78 set 4, 12-12 · our read held Radim Adam at 74.7%
78 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Vitezslav Bosak 1–6 Radim Adam Vitezslav Bosak has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2074.7%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 3.1pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Adam
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Adam
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bosak 1475 vs Adam 1508
Adam
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bosak 80% vs Adam 40%
Bosak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bosak 50% vs Adam 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bosak -1 · Adam +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Adam) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBosak 3.50 / Adam 1.285
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Adam)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233331
Bosak3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 31 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 40
Adam1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 56 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it80% 39 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBosak1wins
AwayAdam6wins
1 of 7 to a deciderAdam leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBosakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayAdam100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bosak2Adam5n = 7Adam took 5 of 7
S2Bosak0Adam7n = 7Adam took 7 of 7
S3Bosak1Adam6n = 7Adam took 6 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away571%
These 7 meetings
MetricBosakAdamB − ABasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match28.335.6−7.3per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBosakAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 380 vs 202 / 39249.7%51.5%189 / 380 vs 202 / 392Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamBosak 3.50/Adam 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.7%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bosak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 6 · 15:30V. Bosak2351080R. Adam341112113
LSep 2 · 10:00V. Bosak49121071192R. Adam461012112113
LAug 29 · 18:30V. Bosak216960R. Adam331111113
LAug 10 · 20:00V. Bosak188370R. Adam331111113
LAug 9 · 14:30V. Bosak228860R. Adam331111113
WAug 7 · 18:00V. Bosak4511911143R. Adam376118121
LMay 31 · 20:30V. Bosak205690R. Adam331111113
V. Bosak10
LOct 3 · 16:30R. Guliak3.0071V. Bosak1.3660LOct 3 · 14:30M. Kowolowski1.831311113V. Bosak1.8311650WOct 3 · 09:29V. Bosak1.83111189113T. Milkov1.8351111182WOct 3 · 08:00T. Milkov1.8385111162V. Bosak1.83111199113WOct 3 · 07:00I. Taichman1.678990V. Bosak2.101111113WOct 3 · 06:30V. Bosak1.80101111113F. Zurek1.91129821LSep 22 · 20:59V. Bosak1.916670M. Jasek1.801111113WSep 22 · 20:00V. Bosak1.361111113R. Guliak3.007760LSep 22 · 19:30J. Peter2.008111311113V. Bosak1.73111311482LSep 22 · 18:00V. Bosak1.83111161072M. Jasek1.83491112113
R. Adam10
WOct 3 · 16:00R. Adam1.331111113M. Kowolowski3.259850WOct 3 · 14:00R. Adam1.501112810113R. Guliak2.50610111292LOct 1 · 20:58R. Adam1.6791111892I. Taichman2.10116611113LOct 1 · 20:00M. Blejchar1.7311711113R. Adam2.00511511LOct 1 · 19:00I. Taichman2.2571111113R. Adam1.57117671WOct 1 · 18:30R. Adam1.301091111113F. Zurek3.4012119512WSep 21 · 21:30R. Adam2.10911115113M. Blejchar1.6611961182WSep 21 · 20:30T. Milota1.735640R. Adam2.001111113WSep 21 · 19:30R. Adam2.1091311113J. Hrabec1.671111971LSep 21 · 18:30M. Blejchar1.611181011113R. Adam2.2081112452
Upcoming Matches
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R. Adam
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