TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Roman Guliak vs Vitezslav Bosak 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171175111816––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:24 and never touched: 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeVitezslav Bosak to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Guliak above · Vitezslav Bosak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 18-16
Point 86 set 4, 18-16 · our read held Vitezslav Bosak at 75.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Roman Guliak 1–14 Vitezslav Bosak Roman Guliak has won 1 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2475.1%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
clears by 1.7pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Bosak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-14 in 15
Bosak
Wrong
gap of 13 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guliak 1410 vs Bosak 1465
Bosak
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guliak 20% vs Bosak 80%
Bosak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guliak 40% vs Bosak 60%
Bosak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guliak -2 · Bosak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Bosak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guliak form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuliak 3.00 / Bosak 1.363
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Bosak)+1.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13233289
Guliak3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 76 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 70
Bosak1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 74 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it78% 58 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuliak1wins
AwayBosak9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBosak leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuliak33.3%1 of 3
AwayBosak100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guliak3Bosak7n = 10Bosak took 7 of 10
S2Guliak2Bosak8n = 10Bosak took 8 of 10
S3Guliak5Bosak5n = 10split evenly
S4Guliak0Bosak6n = 6Bosak took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuliakBosakG − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.038.0−8.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuliakBosakBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 674 vs 190 / 38149.6%49.9%334 / 674 vs 190 / 381Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BosakGuliak 3.00/Bosak 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Bosak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 20:00R. Guliak207760V. Bosak331111113
LSep 18 · 21:28R. Guliak1843110V. Bosak351111133
LSep 18 · 20:00R. Guliak3111114232V. Bosak48781111113
LAug 22 · 21:29R. Guliak34971171V. Bosak3611113113
WAug 22 · 19:00R. Guliak331111113V. Bosak208660
LAug 10 · 18:30R. Guliak408913101V. Bosak45111111123
LAug 8 · 13:00R. Guliak371181171V. Bosak4413119113
LAug 8 · 10:30R. Guliak36129961V. Bosak43101111113
LAug 1 · 10:30R. Guliak296101121V. Bosak4311129113
LAug 1 · 06:00R. Guliak226970V. Bosak331111113
R. Guliak10
LOct 3 · 15:00R. Guliak2.201311311102M. Kowolowski1.61157119123LOct 3 · 14:00R. Adam1.501112810113R. Guliak2.50610111292WOct 2 · 17:00I. Taichman1.9551111962R. Guliak1.75118511113LOct 2 · 16:30R. Guliak2.209980T. Milkov1.611111113LOct 2 · 15:00R. Guliak2.25661171F. Zurek1.5711115113WOct 2 · 14:00I. Taichman1.73151141R. Guliak2.0011119113LSep 26 · 09:30R. Guliak2.2511611462F. Zurek1.57511811113WSep 26 · 08:30R. Guliak1.441111123D. Priesol2.6389100LSep 26 · 07:00R. Guliak2.009960F. Zurek1.731111113WSep 26 · 06:00I. Taichman1.671171041R. Guliak2.1051112113
V. Bosak10
WOct 3 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5011116143R. Adam1.286911121LOct 3 · 14:30M. Kowolowski1.831311113V. Bosak1.8311650WOct 3 · 09:29V. Bosak1.83111189113T. Milkov1.8351111182WOct 3 · 08:00T. Milkov1.8385111162V. Bosak1.83111199113WOct 3 · 07:00I. Taichman1.678990V. Bosak2.101111113WOct 3 · 06:30V. Bosak1.80101111113F. Zurek1.91129821LSep 22 · 20:59V. Bosak1.916670M. Jasek1.801111113WSep 22 · 20:00V. Bosak1.361111113R. Guliak3.007760LSep 22 · 19:30J. Peter2.008111311113V. Bosak1.73111311482LSep 22 · 18:00V. Bosak1.83111161072M. Jasek1.83491112113
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