TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Roman Guliak vs Miroslav Kowolowski 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13151173111191012
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Kowolowski to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Guliak above · Miroslav Kowolowski below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 1-6
Point 87 set 5, 1-6 · our read held Miroslav Kowolowski at 59.3%
87 points drawn · the score is 15 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Roman Guliak 5–5 Miroslav Kowolowski Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5959.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kowolowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guliak 1419 vs Kowolowski 1477
Kowolowski
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guliak 40% vs Kowolowski 60%
Kowolowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guliak 40% vs Kowolowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guliak -1 · Kowolowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kowolowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuliak 2.20 / Kowolowski 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kowolowski)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233325
Guliak2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 76 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 70
Kowolowski1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 91 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it69% 61 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuliak5wins
AwayKowolowski5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuliakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKowolowski62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guliak2Kowolowski8n = 10Kowolowski took 8 of 10
S2Guliak6Kowolowski4n = 10Guliak took 6 of 10
S3Guliak5Kowolowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Guliak5Kowolowski3n = 8Guliak took 5 of 8
S5Guliak3Kowolowski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuliakKowolowskiG − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.040.9+0.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuliakKowolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 673 vs 168 / 30349.6%55.5%334 / 673 vs 168 / 303Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KowolowskiGuliak 2.20/Kowolowski 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Kowolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kowolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 20:30R. Guliak511111612113M. Kowolowski4583111492
LJul 21 · 19:30R. Guliak2561090M. Kowolowski341112113
LJul 19 · 06:00R. Guliak4381114462M. Kowolowski491141211113
LJul 14 · 19:00R. Guliak47101461162M. Kowolowski551212119113
WJul 7 · 19:00R. Guliak47681111113M. Kowolowski4211116772
WJun 27 · 10:00R. Guliak551111913113M. Kowolowski46136111152
LJun 21 · 16:30R. Guliak167630M. Kowolowski331111113
WJun 20 · 19:00R. Guliak4181111113M. Kowolowski29116841
WMay 6 · 20:58R. Guliak4211911113M. Kowolowski32611781
LMay 6 · 18:30R. Guliak4381111762M. Kowolowski44115611113
R. Guliak10
LOct 3 · 14:00R. Adam1.501112810113R. Guliak2.50610111292WOct 2 · 17:00I. Taichman1.9551111962R. Guliak1.75118511113LOct 2 · 16:30R. Guliak2.209980T. Milkov1.611111113LOct 2 · 15:00R. Guliak2.25661171F. Zurek1.5711115113WOct 2 · 14:00I. Taichman1.73151141R. Guliak2.0011119113LSep 26 · 09:30R. Guliak2.2511611462F. Zurek1.57511811113WSep 26 · 08:30R. Guliak1.441111123D. Priesol2.6389100LSep 26 · 07:00R. Guliak2.009960F. Zurek1.731111113WSep 26 · 06:00I. Taichman1.671171041R. Guliak2.1051112113LSep 23 · 21:28E. Gebek1.441114123R. Guliak2.63912100
M. Kowolowski10
WOct 3 · 14:30M. Kowolowski1.831311113V. Bosak1.8311650WOct 3 · 12:58M. Kowolowski3.001111113P. Hanel1.367700LOct 3 · 12:30P. Hanel1.4461211113M. Kowolowski2.631110951LOct 3 · 11:30M. Kowolowski3.001171341P. Osvald1.36131111113WOct 3 · 10:30P. Bajtek1.831011731M. Kowolowski1.8312911113LSep 29 · 21:30T. Milota2.1081111113M. Kowolowski1.67111521LSep 29 · 20:00P. Hanel1.831111123M. Kowolowski1.8394100WSep 29 · 19:00I. Taichman2.20511771M. Kowolowski1.6111411113WSep 29 · 18:30M. Kowolowski1.8311115113T. Milota1.83391161LSep 27 · 13:30P. Osvald1.3511913133M. Kowolowski2.9071111111
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