TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Milota vs Miroslav Kowolowski 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811111115112––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:26 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Kowolowski to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Milota above · Miroslav Kowolowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 60 set 4, 11-2 · our read held Miroslav Kowolowski at 56.6%
60 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Milota 0–1 Miroslav Kowolowski Tomas Milota has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kowolowski beat Milota 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:26What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kowolowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Milota 1470 vs Kowolowski 1493
Kowolowski
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Milota 80% vs Kowolowski 60%
Milota
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Milota 60% vs Kowolowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Milota +2 · Kowolowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Kowolowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Milota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMilota 2.10 / Kowolowski 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kowolowski)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13219113
Milota2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 27 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Kowolowski1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 90 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it70% 60 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMilota0wins
AwayKowolowski1wins
Kowolowski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMilotaKowolowskiM − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match29.038.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMilotaKowolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 273 vs 165 / 29745.1%55.6%123 / 273 vs 165 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KowolowskiMilota 2.10/Kowolowski 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Kowolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Milota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 29 · 18:30T. Milota29391161M. Kowolowski3811115113
T. Milota10
WSep 29 · 20:30I. Taichman2.50310100T. Milota1.501112123WSep 29 · 19:30T. Milota1.919111111113P. Hanel1.8011813422LSep 29 · 18:30M. Kowolowski1.8311115113T. Milota1.83391161WSep 28 · 21:30T. Milota1.60911911113F. Zurek2.2011211522WSep 28 · 20:30L. Jemelka1.57591191T. Milota2.2511115113WSep 28 · 19:30T. Milota1.5381112113I. Taichman2.381141091WSep 28 · 18:30F. Zurek1.838960T. Milota1.831111113LSep 24 · 08:58P. Osvald1.731111113T. Milota2.006910LSep 24 · 08:30P. Osvald2.501111123T. Milota1.5074100LSep 24 · 07:30T. Milota1.57117571M. Blejchar2.2591111113
M. Kowolowski10
LSep 29 · 20:00P. Hanel1.831111123M. Kowolowski1.8394100WSep 29 · 19:00I. Taichman2.20511771M. Kowolowski1.6111411113WSep 29 · 18:30M. Kowolowski1.8311115113T. Milota1.83391161LSep 27 · 13:30P. Osvald1.3511913133M. Kowolowski2.9071111111WSep 27 · 12:30P. Bajtek1.73115149112M. Kowolowski2.006111211133LSep 27 · 11:30M. Kowolowski2.5010820P. Osvald1.501211113WSep 27 · 10:30M. Blejchar2.50811891M. Kowolowski1.5011811113LSep 25 · 13:30M. Koral1.40111196113M. Kowolowski2.7554111162LSep 25 · 12:30M. Koral1.401111113M. Kowolowski2.758560WSep 25 · 11:30M. Kowolowski1.67111411113I. Taichman2.10516881
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