TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Adam vs Marek Blejchar 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117116––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:42 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMarek Blejchar to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Marek Blejchar @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingRadim Adam above · Marek Blejchar below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Marek Blejchar at 59.3%
53 points played in total.
H2H Radim Adam 26–40 Marek Blejchar Radim Adam has won 26 of their 66 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:4259.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Blejchar
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-40 in 66
Blejchar
Wrong
gap of 14 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1484 vs Blejchar 1557
Blejchar
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 40% vs Blejchar 80%
Blejchar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 40% vs Blejchar 70%
Blejchar
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam -2 · Blejchar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Blejchar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Blejchar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 2.20 / Blejchar 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Blejchar)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238879
Adam2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 32 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Blejchar1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 101 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it84% 69 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam3wins
AwayBlejchar7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBlejchar leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBlejchar66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam1Blejchar9n = 10Blejchar took 9 of 10
S2Adam6Blejchar4n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S3Adam5Blejchar5n = 10split evenly
S4Adam1Blejchar7n = 8Blejchar took 7 of 8
S5Adam2Blejchar1n = 3Adam took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamBlejcharA − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match35.742.1−6.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamBlejcharBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 396 vs 309 / 63051.3%49.1%203 / 396 vs 309 / 630Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BlejcharAdam 2.20/Blejchar 1.61
Miss
What we said
59.3%
Blejchar · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Marek Blejchar @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
3–0
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 20:00R. Adam22511511M. Blejchar4011711113
WSep 21 · 21:30R. Adam47911115113M. Blejchar4511961182
LSep 21 · 18:30R. Adam4081112452M. Blejchar511181011113
LSep 20 · 13:30R. Adam381171281M. Blejchar4591114113
LSep 20 · 11:00R. Adam306101131M. Blejchar4011126113
LSep 13 · 11:00R. Adam2477100M. Blejchar341111123
LSep 11 · 19:00R. Adam341011130M. Blejchar401213153
WSep 9 · 20:00R. Adam3851111113M. Blejchar32117861
WSep 6 · 17:30R. Adam48711115143M. Blejchar50118811122
LSep 6 · 16:00R. Adam3610111051M. Blejchar4412912113
R. Adam10
LOct 4 · 12:30P. Chovanec1.611111123R. Adam2.2099100LOct 4 · 10:30L. Velicka1.801111113R. Adam1.919890LOct 3 · 17:30R. Adam1.2811751192M. Kowolowski3.50711112113WOct 3 · 16:00R. Adam1.331111113M. Kowolowski3.259850LOct 3 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5011116143R. Adam1.286911121WOct 3 · 14:00R. Adam1.501112810113R. Guliak2.50610111292LOct 1 · 20:58R. Adam1.6791111892I. Taichman2.10116611113LOct 1 · 20:00M. Blejchar1.7311711113R. Adam2.00511511LOct 1 · 19:00I. Taichman2.2571111113R. Adam1.57117671WOct 1 · 18:30R. Adam1.301091111113F. Zurek3.4012119512
M. Blejchar10
WOct 4 · 12:00M. Blejchar1.831111113L. Velicka1.838530LOct 4 · 10:00M. Blejchar1.9166111232P. Chovanec1.801111710113WOct 1 · 21:30M. Blejchar1.40119116113F. Zurek2.7581191182WOct 1 · 20:00M. Blejchar1.7311711113R. Adam2.00511511WOct 1 · 19:30F. Zurek2.637111161M. Blejchar1.4411137113WOct 1 · 18:00M. Blejchar1.531311143I. Taichman2.38115120WSep 29 · 08:59M. Blejchar1.8351113113M. Koral1.831191151WSep 29 · 08:30M. Koral1.91111411872M. Blejchar1.801312611113WSep 29 · 07:30M. Blejchar2.63511711113D. Machander1.4411811982LSep 29 · 06:30M. Volny1.331111113M. Blejchar3.257450
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