TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marek Blejchar vs Filip Zurek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118911119611118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched: 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeMarek Blejchar to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Blejchar above · Filip Zurek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Marek Blejchar at 68.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Marek Blejchar 9–4 Filip Zurek Filip Zurek has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Blejchar beat Zurek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1768.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Blejchar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Blejchar
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blejchar 1562 vs Zurek 1489
Blejchar
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blejchar 100% vs Zurek 40%
Blejchar
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blejchar 60% vs Zurek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Blejchar +6 · Zurek +1
Blejchar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Blejchar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Blejchar form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlejchar 1.40 / Zurek 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Blejchar)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13230007
Blejchar1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 98 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it93% 49 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it84% 66 of 79
Zurek2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 99 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back33% 38 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBlejchar7wins
AwayZurek3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBlejchar leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBlejchar100%5 of 5
AwayZurek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blejchar5Zurek5n = 10split evenly
S2Blejchar6Zurek4n = 10Blejchar took 6 of 10
S3Blejchar8Zurek2n = 10Blejchar took 8 of 10
S4Blejchar3Zurek2n = 5Blejchar took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBlejcharZurekB − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.431.3+3.1per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlejcharZurekBasisWin rate · lifetime312 / 637 vs 321 / 63049%51%312 / 637 vs 321 / 630Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BlejcharBlejchar 1.40/Zurek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Blejchar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Blejchar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 19:30M. Blejchar4211137113F. Zurek357111161
WSep 13 · 10:30M. Blejchar341112113F. Zurek2451090
LSep 5 · 21:02M. Blejchar27721171F. Zurek4011117113
WSep 5 · 18:30M. Blejchar331111113F. Zurek189540
LSep 3 · 09:28M. Blejchar31771161F. Zurek4211119113
WSep 3 · 06:00M. Blejchar507101111113F. Zurek4211125682
WAug 29 · 11:30M. Blejchar331111113F. Zurek224990
LAug 20 · 07:30M. Blejchar2051050F. Zurek341112113
WAug 5 · 08:00M. Blejchar331111113F. Zurek249960
WAug 4 · 06:30M. Blejchar4181111113F. Zurek32117951
M. Blejchar10
WOct 1 · 20:00M. Blejchar1.7311711113R. Adam2.00511511WOct 1 · 19:30F. Zurek2.637111161M. Blejchar1.4411137113WOct 1 · 18:00M. Blejchar1.531311143I. Taichman2.38115120WSep 29 · 08:59M. Blejchar1.8351113113M. Koral1.831191151WSep 29 · 08:30M. Koral1.91111411872M. Blejchar1.801312611113WSep 29 · 07:30M. Blejchar2.63511711113D. Machander1.4411811982LSep 29 · 06:30M. Volny1.331111113M. Blejchar3.257450LSep 27 · 13:06P. Bajtek1.40111111143M. Blejchar2.659813121LSep 27 · 12:00P. Osvald1.8012711113M. Blejchar1.911011251LSep 27 · 11:00P. Bajtek1.441111113M. Blejchar2.635870
F. Zurek10
WOct 1 · 20:30I. Taichman2.25711781F. Zurek1.5711911113LOct 1 · 19:30F. Zurek2.637111161M. Blejchar1.4411137113LOct 1 · 18:30R. Adam1.301091111113F. Zurek3.4012119512LSep 28 · 21:30T. Milota1.60911911113F. Zurek2.2011211522WSep 28 · 20:00I. Taichman2.25114761F. Zurek1.5761111113WSep 28 · 19:00L. Jemelka1.40118751F. Zurek2.7551111113LSep 28 · 18:30F. Zurek1.838960T. Milota1.831111113WSep 27 · 13:30F. Zurek1.7311114123T. Hrabec2.002711101WSep 27 · 12:00F. Zurek1.6111611113M. Jasek2.20511661WSep 27 · 11:30D. Priesol1.5311911862F. Zurek2.38111511113
Upcoming Matches
M. Blejchar
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F. Zurek
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