TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Evald Gebek vs Miroslav Kowolowski 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
14121210119––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:21 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeEvald Gebek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingEvald Gebek above · Miroslav Kowolowski below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 68 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Evald Gebek at 55.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Evald Gebek 3–2 Miroslav Kowolowski Miroslav Kowolowski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2155.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gebek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gebek 1537 vs Kowolowski 1483
Gebek
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gebek 60% vs Kowolowski 80%
Kowolowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gebek 60% vs Kowolowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gebek +1 · Kowolowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Gebek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowolowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGebek 1.666 / Kowolowski 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Gebek)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243155
Gebek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 29 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it66% 21 of 32
Kowolowski2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 35 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back25% 11 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeGebek3wins
AwayKowolowski2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderGebek leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGebek66.7%2 of 3
AwayKowolowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gebek3Kowolowski2n = 5Gebek took 3 of 5
S2Gebek3Kowolowski2n = 5Gebek took 3 of 5
S3Gebek4Kowolowski1n = 5Gebek took 4 of 5
S4Gebek3Kowolowski1n = 4Gebek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricGebekKowolowskiG − KBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.840.6−0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGebekKowolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 82 vs 170 / 30858.5%55.2%48 / 82 vs 170 / 308Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GebekGebek 1.67/Kowolowski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Gebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 5 · 06:30E. Gebek371412113M. Kowolowski31121090
WSep 23 · 19:00E. Gebek4481411113M. Kowolowski371112771
WMay 6 · 20:30E. Gebek4012611113M. Kowolowski341011671
LApr 8 · 09:30E. Gebek3731111662M. Kowolowski48117811113
LApr 8 · 08:30E. Gebek4111371372M. Kowolowski539111111113
E. Gebek10
WOct 5 · 07:00R. Adam1.834860E. Gebek1.831111113WSep 23 · 21:28E. Gebek1.441114123R. Guliak2.63912100LSep 23 · 20:00I. Taichman1.67711911113E. Gebek2.1011511352WSep 23 · 19:00M. Kowolowski1.911112771E. Gebek1.8081411113WSep 23 · 18:30E. Gebek1.50111111113R. Guliak2.50137971LSep 16 · 09:30R. Adam1.85111199123E. Gebek1.85891111102WSep 16 · 08:00R. Adam1.831112101092E. Gebek1.839101212113LSep 16 · 07:00I. Taichman1.801111123E. Gebek1.9158100WSep 16 · 06:30E. Gebek1.5311815113F. Zurek2.387111391WSep 13 · 09:00E. Gebek1.4571111113T. Kraninger2.55118641
M. Kowolowski10
LOct 5 · 07:30M. Kowolowski1.57168551M. Blejchar2.25141111113WOct 3 · 17:30R. Adam1.2811751192M. Kowolowski3.50711112113LOct 3 · 16:00R. Adam1.331111113M. Kowolowski3.259850WOct 3 · 15:00R. Guliak2.201311311102M. Kowolowski1.61157119123WOct 3 · 14:30M. Kowolowski1.831311113V. Bosak1.8311650WOct 3 · 12:58M. Kowolowski3.001111113P. Hanel1.367700LOct 3 · 12:30P. Hanel1.4461211113M. Kowolowski2.631110951LOct 3 · 11:30M. Kowolowski3.001171341P. Osvald1.36131111113WOct 3 · 10:30P. Bajtek1.831011731M. Kowolowski1.8312911113LSep 23 · 19:00M. Kowolowski1.911112771E. Gebek1.8081411113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Kowolowski
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