TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Alexandr Virag vs Matyas Kolek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611116116811711
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:10 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeAlexandr Virag to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Alexandr Virag @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingAlexandr Virag above · Matyas Kolek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Alexandr Virag at 59.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Alexandr Virag 9–4 Matyas Kolek Matyas Kolek has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:1059.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Virag
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Virag
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Virag 1392 vs Kolek 1331
Virag
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Virag 20% vs Kolek 0%
Virag
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Virag 50% vs Kolek 30%
Virag
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Virag +1 · Kolek -5
Kolek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Virag) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVirag 1.615 / Kolek 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Virag)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269383
Virag1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 49 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it70% 28 of 40
Kolek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 41 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVirag7wins
AwayKolek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVirag leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVirag75%3 of 4
AwayKolek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Virag4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Virag5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S3Virag6Kolek4n = 10Virag took 6 of 10
S4Virag9Kolek0n = 9Virag took 9 of 9
S5Virag1Kolek2n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricViragKolekV − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.739.6+2.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricViragKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 305 vs 135 / 26548.9%50.9%149 / 305 vs 135 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ViragVirag 1.61/Kolek 2.20
Miss
What we said
59.7%
Virag · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Alexandr Virag @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 07:00A. Virag481051111113M. Kolek4012114672
LSep 28 · 07:00A. Virag49114811152M. Kolek55711119173
WSep 8 · 11:30A. Virag4681116113M. Kolek361151461
WAug 22 · 09:30A. Virag3911113143M. Kolek365811121
LAug 22 · 08:30A. Virag229760M. Kolek331111113
LAug 12 · 13:30A. Virag4496111172M. Kolek51111199113
WAug 12 · 12:30A. Virag4111118113M. Kolek32481191
WJul 28 · 09:28A. Virag4211811123M. Kolek399119101
WJul 28 · 07:00A. Virag4181111113M. Kolek33117961
WJun 5 · 13:30A. Virag4591113123M. Kolek4111911101
A. Virag10
WOct 10 · 09:00M. Kolek1.9111911952A. Virag1.80611511113WOct 10 · 07:00A. Virag2.10111188113T. Kraninger1.6778111132LOct 10 · 06:00M. Kowolowski1.401111123A. Virag2.7587100LOct 7 · 09:30P. Varecha1.305111111113A. Virag3.1511781382LOct 7 · 08:00P. Varecha1.25111576113A. Virag3.75613111192LOct 7 · 07:00D. Mikula2.2012511113A. Virag1.611011781WOct 7 · 06:30A. Virag1.5011116113Z. Zientek2.50741161WOct 3 · 09:30R. Kvasnicka1.4396111142A. Virag2.60111187113WOct 3 · 08:30A. Virag1.3612211113A. Schneeberger3.001011781WOct 3 · 07:00A. Virag1.671051111113M. Kolek2.1012114672
M. Kolek10
LOct 10 · 09:00M. Kolek1.9111911952A. Virag1.80611511113LOct 10 · 07:30M. Kolek3.2511961272M. Kowolowski1.335111110113LOct 10 · 06:30T. Kraninger1.6711115113M. Kolek2.10861171LOct 3 · 21:00M. Kolek2.50651131L. Jemelka1.5011118113LOct 3 · 20:30M. Kolek2.201110681D. Priesol1.6171211113LOct 3 · 19:00M. Kolek2.7561070R. Kvasnicka1.401112113WOct 3 · 18:00L. Jemelka1.2511117972M. Kolek3.75681111113WOct 3 · 09:00M. Kolek1.36114311113A. Schneeberger3.0051111682LOct 3 · 08:00R. Kvasnicka1.501112113M. Kolek2.5051050LOct 3 · 07:00A. Virag1.671051111113M. Kolek2.1012114672
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.