TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Matyas Kolek vs Daniel Priesol 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1171012611811––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDaniel Priesol to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Daniel Priesol below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Daniel Priesol at 58.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 1–5 Daniel Priesol Matyas Kolek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2758.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Priesol
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Priesol
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1372 vs Priesol 1372
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 40% vs Priesol 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 50% vs Priesol 30%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -1 · Priesol +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Priesol) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Priesol form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.20 / Priesol 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Priesol)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233317
Kolek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 41 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Priesol1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 61 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it71% 43 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKolek1wins
AwayPriesol5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderPriesol leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek33.3%1 of 3
AwayPriesol100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek3Priesol3n = 6split evenly
S2Kolek2Priesol4n = 6Priesol took 4 of 6
S3Kolek2Priesol4n = 6Priesol took 4 of 6
S4Kolek1Priesol3n = 4Priesol took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKolekPriesolK − PBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match31.540.2−8.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekPriesolBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 261 vs 246 / 47651.7%51.7%135 / 261 vs 246 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PriesolKolek 2.20/Priesol 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Priesol · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Priesol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 1 · 21:29M. Kolek3412115332D. Priesol481051111113
WAug 1 · 20:30M. Kolek4011711113D. Priesol37911981
LApr 22 · 21:28M. Kolek239590D. Priesol331111113
LApr 22 · 19:00M. Kolek321151331D. Priesol4141115113
LApr 19 · 10:00M. Kolek4141113852D. Priesol491151111113
LAug 7 · 11:30M. Kolek196490D. Priesol331111113
M. Kolek10
LOct 3 · 21:00M. Kolek2.50651131L. Jemelka1.5011118113LOct 3 · 19:00M. Kolek2.7561070R. Kvasnicka1.401112113WOct 3 · 18:00L. Jemelka1.2511117972M. Kolek3.75681111113WOct 3 · 09:00M. Kolek1.36114311113A. Schneeberger3.0051111682LOct 3 · 08:00R. Kvasnicka1.501112113M. Kolek2.5051050LOct 3 · 07:00A. Virag1.671051111113M. Kolek2.1012114672WOct 3 · 06:30M. Kolek1.801111113A. Schneeberger1.914950WOct 2 · 09:20M. Kolek1.4411117123P. Varecha2.639911101LOct 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.671111143M. Kolek2.1055120LOct 2 · 07:00D. Mikula2.50119117113M. Kolek1.5091161172
D. Priesol10
WOct 3 · 21:30R. Kvasnicka1.5711411872D. Priesol2.25611811113WOct 3 · 19:30D. Priesol2.75111194113L. Jemelka1.4066111192LOct 3 · 18:30R. Kvasnicka1.5781211113D. Priesol2.251110581LSep 27 · 12:59D. Priesol3.2510870M. Jasek1.331211113WSep 27 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.539121171D. Priesol2.3811149113LSep 27 · 11:30D. Priesol1.5311911862F. Zurek2.38111511113LSep 27 · 10:30M. Jasek1.401111113D. Priesol2.758550LSep 26 · 08:58I. Taichman1.2511911113D. Priesol3.75711891LSep 26 · 08:30R. Guliak1.441111123D. Priesol2.6389100LSep 26 · 07:30D. Priesol3.4013760I. Taichman1.301511113
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