TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Kvasnicka vs Daniel Priesol 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111210115118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched: 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeRadim Kvasnicka to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Kvasnicka above · Daniel Priesol below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-5
Point 69 set 4, 7-5 · our read held Radim Kvasnicka at 63.1%
69 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Radim Kvasnicka 11–13 Daniel Priesol Radim Kvasnicka has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2563.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 0.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kvasnicka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-13 in 24
Priesol
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kvasnicka 1459 vs Priesol 1369
Kvasnicka
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kvasnicka 80% vs Priesol 20%
Kvasnicka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kvasnicka 70% vs Priesol 40%
Kvasnicka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kvasnicka -1 · Priesol -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kvasnicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Priesol form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKvasnicka 1.571 / Priesol 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kvasnicka)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13233239
Kvasnicka1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 33 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Priesol2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 46 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKvasnicka6wins
AwayPriesol4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKvasnicka leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKvasnicka80%4 of 5
AwayPriesol60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kvasnicka5Priesol5n = 10split evenly
S2Kvasnicka5Priesol5n = 10split evenly
S3Kvasnicka4Priesol6n = 10Priesol took 6 of 10
S4Kvasnicka4Priesol5n = 9Priesol took 5 of 9
S5Kvasnicka4Priesol1n = 5Kvasnicka took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKvasnickaPriesolK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.738.4+3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKvasnickaPriesolBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 124 vs 245 / 47455.7%51.7%69 / 124 vs 245 / 474Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KvasnickaKvasnicka 1.57/Priesol 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.1%
Kvasnicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kvasnicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 13:30R. Kvasnicka45111166113D. Priesol3758111122
WSep 12 · 12:00R. Kvasnicka471111113113D. Priesol3615131162
LAug 23 · 08:30R. Kvasnicka44713111122D. Priesol41111540113
WAug 15 · 17:01R. Kvasnicka48611119113D. Priesol4111561182
LAug 15 · 16:30R. Kvasnicka34116891D. Priesol4181111113
WJul 18 · 12:00R. Kvasnicka4011513113D. Priesol326111141
WJul 11 · 18:00R. Kvasnicka4311118133D. Priesol338311111
LJul 10 · 20:59R. Kvasnicka237790D. Priesol331111113
WJul 10 · 18:30R. Kvasnicka52911911123D. Priesol50119119102
LMay 22 · 20:30R. Kvasnicka419811131D. Priesol4011113153
R. Kvasnicka10
WOct 3 · 19:00M. Kolek2.7561070R. Kvasnicka1.401112113LOct 3 · 09:30R. Kvasnicka1.4396111142A. Virag2.60111187113WOct 3 · 08:00R. Kvasnicka1.501112113M. Kolek2.5051050WOct 3 · 07:30A. Schneeberger2.63911111152R. Kvasnicka1.44111398113WOct 3 · 06:00R. Kvasnicka1.801111113A. Virag1.917880WSep 25 · 21:00R. Kvasnicka1.57811911113J. Peter2.2511911432WSep 25 · 20:30R. Kvasnicka2.50411118113T. Kraninger1.5011891192WSep 25 · 19:00R. Kvasnicka1.53931111143J. Peter2.38111185122LSep 25 · 18:00M. Jasek1.571111113R. Kvasnicka2.256210WSep 19 · 21:30D. Mikula1.83137981R. Kvasnicka1.83111111113
D. Priesol10
LSep 27 · 12:59D. Priesol3.2510870M. Jasek1.331211113WSep 27 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.539121171D. Priesol2.3811149113LSep 27 · 11:30D. Priesol1.5311911862F. Zurek2.38111511113LSep 27 · 10:30M. Jasek1.401111113D. Priesol2.758550LSep 26 · 08:58I. Taichman1.2511911113D. Priesol3.75711891LSep 26 · 08:30R. Guliak1.441111123D. Priesol2.6389100LSep 26 · 07:30D. Priesol3.4013760I. Taichman1.301511113WSep 26 · 06:30F. Zurek2.1010680D. Priesol1.671211113WSep 13 · 13:30T. Hrabec1.55101271352D. Priesol2.3512101111113WSep 13 · 12:00R. Guliak1.33571181D. Priesol3.2511116113
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