Jiri Grohsgott vs Ladislav Novotny 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Jiri Grohsgott

Home

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

114114112––––

Ladislav Novotny

Away

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jiri Grohsgott to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Ladislav Novotny below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 11-4

Set 3 · 11-2

Point 43 set 3, 11-2 · our read held Jiri Grohsgott at 54.0%

43 points played in total.

H2H Jiri Grohsgott 0–3 Ladislav Novotny Jiri Grohsgott has won 0 of their 3 meetings.

Last 3 · 0–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Grohsgott

Grohsgott 1.73/Novotny 2.00

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Grohsgott · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Grohsgott won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 07:58

54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.9pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Grohsgott

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

0-3 in 3

Novotny

Wrong

gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Grohsgott 1186 vs Novotny 1196

Novotny

Wrong

both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Grohsgott 40% vs Novotny 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Grohsgott 30% vs Novotny 60%

Novotny

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Grohsgott +1 · Novotny -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Grohsgott) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Grohsgott: form 40%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsGrohsgott 1.727 / Novotny 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Grohsgott)-3.9pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 3 meetings

HomeGrohsgott0wins

AwayNovotny3wins

2 of 3 to a deciderNovotny leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Grohsgott1Novotny2n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3

S2Grohsgott1Novotny2n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3

S3Grohsgott0Novotny3n = 3Novotny took 3 of 3

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away267%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away133%

These 3 meetings

MetricGrohsgottNovotnyG − NBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.044.0−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricGrohsgottNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime734 / 1500 vs 199 / 39848.9%50%734 / 1500 vs 199 / 398Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.8per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13280339

Grohsgott1.73

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite65% won 148 of 229

Up 2–0, closes it93% 83 of 89

Up 1–0, closes it80% 112 of 140

Novotny2.00

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog45% won 40 of 89

Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 46

Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30

Jiri Grohsgott vs Ladislav Novotny 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jiri Grohsgott vs Ladislav Novotny 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.