TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Vaclavik vs Jiri Grohsgott 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118811811119114
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:48 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · Jiri Grohsgott below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 61.6%
77 points drawn · the score is 15 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 18–15 Jiri Grohsgott Jiri Grohsgott has won 15 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4861.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-15 in 33
Vaclavik
Correct
gap of 3 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1314 vs Grohsgott 1215
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 60% vs Grohsgott 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 70% vs Grohsgott 40%
Vaclavik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik +3 · Grohsgott +1
Vaclavik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Vaclavik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grohsgott form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 1.533 / Grohsgott 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Vaclavik)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268541
Vaclavik1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 60 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it82% 51 of 62
Grohsgott2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 125 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back21% 40 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVaclavik5wins
AwayGrohsgott5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclavik66.7%4 of 6
AwayGrohsgott75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclavik6Grohsgott4n = 10Vaclavik took 6 of 10
S2Vaclavik5Grohsgott5n = 10split evenly
S3Vaclavik4Grohsgott6n = 10Grohsgott took 6 of 10
S4Vaclavik3Grohsgott4n = 7Grohsgott took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVaclavikGrohsgottV − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.435.6+0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikGrohsgottBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 233 vs 732 / 149356.2%49%131 / 233 vs 732 / 1493Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikVaclavik 1.53/Grohsgott 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 13:00M. Vaclavik3851111113J. Grohsgott30114691
WOct 9 · 12:00M. Vaclavik45111211113J. Grohsgott331101391
WOct 2 · 02:30M. Vaclavik331111113J. Grohsgott178360
LSep 28 · 01:30M. Vaclavik37168851J. Grohsgott47141111113
LSep 17 · 08:58M. Vaclavik36912781J. Grohsgott43111011113
WSep 17 · 08:30M. Vaclavik341111123J. Grohsgott2578100
WSep 4 · 03:30M. Vaclavik51119911113J. Grohsgott4591111862
LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vaclavik228860J. Grohsgott331111113
LSep 2 · 12:59M. Vaclavik321172121J. Grohsgott4151111143
LSep 2 · 11:30M. Vaclavik367111171J. Grohsgott4211137113
M. Vaclavik10
LOct 10 · 15:30L. Mikyska1.9191111113M. Vaclavik1.80116781WOct 10 · 14:00M. Vaclavik1.3671111113L. Havrda3.00118541WOct 9 · 13:00M. Vaclavik1.7351111113J. Grohsgott2.00114691WOct 9 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.73111211113J. Grohsgott2.001101391LOct 9 · 11:30V. Hruska Sr1.50781113113M. Vaclavik2.50111141122LOct 9 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.57911151162D. Mutl2.25119179113WOct 2 · 03:30M. Syroha1.4510870M. Vaclavik2.551211113WOct 2 · 02:30M. Vaclavik1.671111113J. Grohsgott2.108360LOct 2 · 01:30M. Syroha1.33711112113M. Vaclavik3.25116111042WOct 2 · 00:00M. Vaclavik2.38121211113S. Mazanek1.531410551
J. Grohsgott10
WOct 10 · 15:00L. Havrda1.6789141172J. Grohsgott2.101111127113LOct 10 · 14:30J. Grohsgott2.209660L. Mikyska1.571111113LOct 10 · 13:30L. Mikyska1.731115113J. Grohsgott2.0041340WOct 10 · 12:30M. Syroha1.616380J. Grohsgott2.201111113WOct 10 · 11:30J. Grohsgott2.0011111110113M. Lubas1.7357131282LOct 10 · 10:30L. Mikyska1.8371111113J. Grohsgott1.83112691LOct 9 · 13:00M. Vaclavik1.7351111113J. Grohsgott2.00114691LOct 9 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.73111211113J. Grohsgott2.001101391LOct 9 · 11:00D. Mutl2.2091511113J. Grohsgott1.611113691LOct 2 · 02:30M. Vaclavik1.671111113J. Grohsgott2.108360
Upcoming Matches
M. Vaclavik
Nothing scheduled
J. Grohsgott
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.