TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Leos Havrda vs Jiri Grohsgott 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8119111412117711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeLeos Havrda to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLeos Havrda above · Jiri Grohsgott below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-8
Point 97 set 5, 6-8 · our read held Leos Havrda at 56.2%
97 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Leos Havrda 44–49 Jiri Grohsgott Leos Havrda has won 44 of their 93 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5956.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Havrda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
44-49 in 93
Grohsgott
Correct
gap of 5 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1251 vs Grohsgott 1209
Havrda
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 80% vs Grohsgott 40%
Havrda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 50% vs Grohsgott 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda -1 · Grohsgott +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Havrda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 1.666 / Grohsgott 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Havrda)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269689
Havrda1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 34 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it83% 25 of 30
Grohsgott2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 125 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back21% 40 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda8wins
AwayGrohsgott2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHavrda leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda100%5 of 5
AwayGrohsgott40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda5Grohsgott5n = 10split evenly
S2Havrda8Grohsgott2n = 10Havrda took 8 of 10
S3Havrda8Grohsgott2n = 10Havrda took 8 of 10
S4Havrda4Grohsgott1n = 5Havrda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaGrohsgottH − GBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.530.3+7.2per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaGrohsgottBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 494 vs 731 / 149145.6%49%225 / 494 vs 731 / 1491Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaHavrda 1.67/Grohsgott 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Grohsgott won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 15:30L. Havrda4211911113J. Grohsgott31611771
LSep 26 · 21:30L. Havrda2275100J. Grohsgott341111123
WSep 26 · 18:00L. Havrda4071111113J. Grohsgott32117591
WSep 23 · 16:30L. Havrda50711117143J. Grohsgott44113711122
WSep 20 · 02:00L. Havrda331111113J. Grohsgott216780
WSep 5 · 13:00L. Havrda331111113J. Grohsgott179530
WSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda331111113J. Grohsgott208750
WAug 30 · 01:00L. Havrda331111113J. Grohsgott195860
LJul 1 · 01:00L. Havrda4691171272J. Grohsgott511181110113
WJun 29 · 09:00L. Havrda4391112113J. Grohsgott341181051
L. Havrda10
LOct 10 · 14:00M. Vaclavik1.3671111113L. Havrda3.00118541WOct 9 · 17:30L. Havrda1.80881111113P. Kulhanek1.9011116932WOct 9 · 16:00M. Barta1.4451151182L. Havrda2.63117114113WOct 9 · 15:00J. Svec1.615660L. Havrda2.201111113WOct 9 · 14:30L. Havrda2.1081111113P. Kulhanek1.67119791LOct 4 · 12:58L. Havel1.441111113L. Havrda2.636350LOct 4 · 12:00M. Barta1.801211113L. Havrda1.9110780LOct 4 · 11:00L. Havel1.40611116133L. Havrda2.75118711112LOct 4 · 10:30L. Havrda2.63811761V. Hruska Sr1.4411811113WOct 3 · 03:30L. Havrda1.731211113J. Potensky2.0010260
J. Grohsgott10
LOct 10 · 16:00M. Vaclavik1.53118811113J. Grohsgott2.3881111942LOct 10 · 14:30J. Grohsgott2.209660L. Mikyska1.571111113LOct 10 · 13:30L. Mikyska1.731115113J. Grohsgott2.0041340WOct 10 · 12:30M. Syroha1.616380J. Grohsgott2.201111113WOct 10 · 11:30J. Grohsgott2.0011111110113M. Lubas1.7357131282LOct 10 · 10:30L. Mikyska1.8371111113J. Grohsgott1.83112691LOct 9 · 13:00M. Vaclavik1.7351111113J. Grohsgott2.00114691LOct 9 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.73111211113J. Grohsgott2.001101391LOct 9 · 11:00D. Mutl2.2091511113J. Grohsgott1.611113691WOct 9 · 10:30J. Grohsgott2.251311113V. Hruska Sr1.5711690
Upcoming Matches
L. Havrda
Nothing scheduled
J. Grohsgott
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