TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Vaclavik vs Leos Havrda 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118115114––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:47 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · Leos Havrda below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-2
Point 64 set 4, 9-2 · our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 70.4%
64 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 5–0 Leos Havrda Leos Havrda has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4770.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Vaclavik
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1290 vs Havrda 1261
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 60% vs Havrda 80%
Havrda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 60% vs Havrda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik +2 · Havrda +4
Havrda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Vaclavik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 1.363 / Havrda 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Vaclavik)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268542
Vaclavik1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 09)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 60 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it82% 51 of 62
Havrda3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 45 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVaclavik5wins
AwayHavrda0wins
Vaclavik leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclavik100%5 of 5
AwayHavrdan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclavik5Havrda0n = 5Vaclavik took 5 of 5
S2Vaclavik3Havrda2n = 5Vaclavik took 3 of 5
S3Vaclavik3Havrda2n = 5Vaclavik took 3 of 5
S4Vaclavik4Havrda0n = 4Vaclavik took 4 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home480%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricVaclavikHavrdaV − HBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match41.233.0+8.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 232 vs 225 / 49356%45.6%130 / 232 vs 225 / 493Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikVaclavik 1.36/Havrda 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WApr 2 · 22:00M. Vaclavik331111113L. Havrda248790
WNov 12 · 18:00M. Vaclavik47111114113L. Havrda40991661
WNov 12 · 15:00M. Vaclavik3911611113L. Havrda36911881
WOct 12 · 15:30M. Vaclavik4211911113L. Havrda29611571
WOct 10 · 14:00M. Vaclavik45111211113L. Havrda368101351
M. Vaclavik10
LOct 10 · 15:30L. Mikyska1.9191111113M. Vaclavik1.80116781WOct 9 · 13:00M. Vaclavik1.7351111113J. Grohsgott2.00114691WOct 9 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.73111211113J. Grohsgott2.001101391LOct 9 · 11:30V. Hruska Sr1.50781113113M. Vaclavik2.50111141122LOct 9 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.57911151162D. Mutl2.25119179113WOct 2 · 03:30M. Syroha1.4510870M. Vaclavik2.551211113WOct 2 · 02:30M. Vaclavik1.671111113J. Grohsgott2.108360LOct 2 · 01:30M. Syroha1.33711112113M. Vaclavik3.25116111042WOct 2 · 00:00M. Vaclavik2.38121211113S. Mazanek1.531410551WOct 1 · 23:00A. Hejduk2.7551190M. Vaclavik1.401113113
L. Havrda10
LOct 10 · 15:00L. Havrda1.6789141172J. Grohsgott2.101111127113WOct 9 · 17:30L. Havrda1.80881111113P. Kulhanek1.9011116932WOct 9 · 16:00M. Barta1.4451151182L. Havrda2.63117114113WOct 9 · 15:00J. Svec1.615660L. Havrda2.201111113WOct 9 · 14:30L. Havrda2.1081111113P. Kulhanek1.67119791LOct 4 · 12:58L. Havel1.441111113L. Havrda2.636350LOct 4 · 12:00M. Barta1.801211113L. Havrda1.9110780LOct 4 · 11:00L. Havel1.40611116133L. Havrda2.75118711112LOct 4 · 10:30L. Havrda2.63811761V. Hruska Sr1.4411811113WOct 3 · 03:30L. Havrda1.731211113J. Potensky2.0010260
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