TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Svec vs Leos Havrda 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611611––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Svec to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Svec above · Leos Havrda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-9
Point 48 set 3, 6-9 · our read held Jiri Svec at 58.1%
48 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jiri Svec 22–18 Leos Havrda Leos Havrda has won 18 of their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5658.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Svec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-18 in 40
Svec
Wrong
gap of 4 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svec 1237 vs Havrda 1222
Svec
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svec 100% vs Havrda 20%
Svec
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svec 70% vs Havrda 50%
Svec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svec +7 · Havrda +1
Svec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Svec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvec 1.615 / Havrda 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Svec)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264731
Svec1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 54 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it82% 42 of 51
Havrda2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 42 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvec5wins
AwayHavrda5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvec62.5%5 of 8
AwayHavrdan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svec8Havrda2n = 10Svec took 8 of 10
S2Svec4Havrda6n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S3Svec5Havrda5n = 10split evenly
S4Svec2Havrda5n = 7Havrda took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvecHavrdaS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.9+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvecHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 828 vs 222 / 49046.1%45.3%382 / 828 vs 222 / 490Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvecSvec 1.61/Havrda 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Svec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 14:00J. Svec2881190L. Havrda351113113
LSep 15 · 17:10J. Svec47111011962L. Havrda48812611113
LSep 15 · 15:00J. Svec389118101L. Havrda4111711123
WAug 10 · 16:30J. Svec4012116113L. Havrda341091141
WAug 1 · 06:00J. Svec50119127113L. Havrda44411101182
WJul 11 · 13:04J. Svec331111113L. Havrda229490
WJul 11 · 10:00J. Svec331111113L. Havrda259970
LMay 30 · 21:00J. Svec391289101L. Havrda44101111123
WMay 30 · 18:30J. Svec4313811113L. Havrda351111581
LMay 24 · 08:30J. Svec381198101L. Havrda4171111123
J. Svec10
WOct 9 · 14:00M. Barta1.7331040J. Svec2.001112113WOct 7 · 09:30J. Svec1.531111113L. Novotny2.388770WOct 7 · 08:00J. Svec1.5711113113L. Novotny2.25851191WOct 7 · 07:30M. Vrabec3.75411521J. Svec1.2511711113WOct 7 · 06:00J. Svec1.61116117113J. Potensky2.2041141192WOct 5 · 09:04L. Madle2.7571111762J. Svec1.40119911113WOct 5 · 08:30J. Svec1.611112116123L. Madle2.20514611102LOct 5 · 07:00J. Svec1.6111891172J. Potensky2.20711117113LOct 5 · 06:00L. Novotny3.2511118113J. Svec1.33381161LOct 4 · 09:06J. Svec2.001011871J. Martinek1.7312611113
L. Havrda10
WOct 9 · 14:30L. Havrda2.1081111113P. Kulhanek1.67119791LOct 4 · 12:58L. Havel1.441111113L. Havrda2.636350LOct 4 · 12:00M. Barta1.801211113L. Havrda1.9110780LOct 4 · 11:00L. Havel1.40611116133L. Havrda2.75118711112LOct 4 · 10:30L. Havrda2.63811761V. Hruska Sr1.4411811113WOct 3 · 03:30L. Havrda1.731211113J. Potensky2.0010260WOct 3 · 02:30L. Havrda1.911111113J. Potensky1.807950WOct 3 · 01:30V. Stach1.67119391L. Havrda2.1061111113WOct 3 · 00:00L. Havrda1.3611116113J. Martinek3.00271191LOct 2 · 23:00J. Cernik2.751281111113L. Havrda1.4014118992
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