TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ladislav Novotny vs Jiri Svec 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113118811116––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched: 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Svec to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Jiri Svec below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Jiri Svec at 70.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 1–2 Jiri Svec Ladislav Novotny has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5370.9%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 4.1pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Svec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1174 vs Svec 1155
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Svec 20%
Novotny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 50% vs Svec 30%
Novotny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +2 · Svec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Svec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svec form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 3.25 / Svec 1.333
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Svec)-4.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13242859
Novotny3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 37 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Svec1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 50 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it83% 38 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeNovotny1wins
AwaySvec2wins
Svec leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny2Svec1n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
S2Novotny1Svec2n = 3Svec took 2 of 3
S3Novotny0Svec3n = 3Svec took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricNovotnySvecN − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match30.334.7−4.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnySvecBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 392 vs 385 / 83649.7%46.1%195 / 392 vs 385 / 836Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvecNovotny 3.25/Svec 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.9%
Svec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 5 · 06:00L. Novotny4111118113J. Svec28381161
LJul 15 · 09:07L. Novotny27118351J. Svec4291111113
LJul 15 · 06:30L. Novotny2371060J. Svec341112113
L. Novotny10
WOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231WOct 1 · 12:00J. Cernik2.005740L. Novotny1.731111113LOct 1 · 11:00C. Havrda2.7511811113L. Novotny1.40711841LOct 1 · 10:30L. Novotny1.8086110L. Madle1.911111133WOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny1.831111113J. Potensky1.837780LOct 1 · 08:30L. Novotny1.9181171172A. Hejduk1.80115117113WOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny2.2011116113J. Potensky1.61761151WOct 1 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.4011591192L. Novotny2.75611119113LSep 30 · 13:30D. Mutl1.6091111113L. Novotny2.20118871LSep 30 · 12:30L. Novotny2.20101070D. Mutl1.611212113
J. Svec10
LOct 4 · 09:06J. Svec2.001011871J. Martinek1.7312611113WOct 4 · 08:30J. Svec1.44111161113J. Martinek2.6394111112LOct 4 · 07:00J. Svec1.80311941M. Bohac1.9111711113LOct 4 · 06:00M. Syroha1.611211118113J. Svec2.2014581192LOct 3 · 17:30L. Havel1.80111011113J. Svec1.91612571LOct 3 · 16:30L. Havel1.671111113J. Svec2.109880WOct 3 · 15:30J. Svec1.9511711123M. Bohac1.757117101WOct 3 · 14:30V. Hruska Sr1.53712111192J. Svec2.38111497113LSep 27 · 09:01A. Schneeberger1.531111133J. Svec2.3887110LSep 27 · 08:30J. Pleskot1.28841111123J. Svec3.50111176102
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