TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Svec vs Martin Bohac 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1177111171210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:11 and never touched: 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Bohac to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Svec above · Martin Bohac below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Martin Bohac at 54.6%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Svec 4–2 Martin Bohac Martin Bohac has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1154.6%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
short by 2.5pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Bohac
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Svec
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svec 1162 vs Bohac 1321
Bohac
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svec 20% vs Bohac 40%
Bohac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svec 30% vs Bohac 50%
Bohac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svec +1 · Bohac -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Bohac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bohac form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvec 1.95 / Bohac 1.75
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Bohac)-2.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233221
Svec1.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 55 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Bohac1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 9 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSvec4wins
AwayBohac2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderSvec leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvec66.7%2 of 3
AwayBohac33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svec3Bohac3n = 6split evenly
S2Svec2Bohac4n = 6Bohac took 4 of 6
S3Svec4Bohac2n = 6Svec took 4 of 6
S4Svec3Bohac1n = 4Svec took 3 of 4
S5Svec2Bohac1n = 3Svec took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSvecBohacS − BBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match43.740.8+2.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvecBohacBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 828 vs 66 / 13046.3%50.8%383 / 828 vs 66 / 130Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BohacSvec 1.95/Bohac 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.6%
Bohac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Svec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 13 · 08:30J. Svec2681170M. Bohac351113113
WSep 13 · 09:00J. Svec331111113M. Bohac195770
WSep 13 · 07:00J. Svec4291111113M. Bohac29117741
WJun 1 · 09:07J. Svec5611121110123M. Bohac51814712102
LJun 1 · 06:00J. Svec47111181162M. Bohac52813119113
WApr 19 · 15:00J. Svec585201111113M. Bohac5911229892
J. Svec10
LOct 3 · 16:30L. Havel1.671162J. Svec2.10950WOct 3 · 14:30V. Hruska Sr1.53712111192J. Svec2.38111497113LSep 27 · 09:01A. Schneeberger1.531111133J. Svec2.3887110LSep 27 · 08:30J. Pleskot1.28841111123J. Svec3.50111176102LSep 27 · 07:30J. Svec2.2513691152A. Schneeberger1.571111116113LSep 27 · 06:30M. Barta1.83111159123J. Svec1.83441111102LSep 26 · 17:07M. Syroha1.67131111123J. Svec2.101566101WSep 26 · 16:30J. Svec1.731011119113V. Stach2.0012491192LSep 26 · 15:00J. Svec2.009860J. Grohsgott1.731111113LSep 26 · 14:00M. Syroha1.675111410113J. Svec2.10118121212
M. Bohac10
LOct 3 · 16:00M. Bohac2.2511060V. Hruska Sr1.571112113LOct 3 · 14:00M. Bohac2.38912121192L. Havel1.5311101013113WSep 13 · 09:00F. Trojan1.6051111111M. Bohac2.1011135133WSep 13 · 08:30J. Svec1.8081170M. Bohac1.911113113LSep 13 · 07:30M. Bohac2.635121161M. Barta1.4411147113LSep 13 · 06:30F. Trojan1.671112113M. Bohac2.1031090LAug 21 · 13:30M. Bohac1.738860M. Chalupnicek2.001111113WAug 21 · 12:00M. Bohac2.1061111113M. Chalupnicek1.67119891WAug 21 · 11:30J. Grohsgott3.007121161M. Bohac1.3611147113LAug 21 · 10:00M. Bohac1.5767111192M. Lubas2.25111156113
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