TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ludek Madle vs Ladislav Novotny 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLudek Madle above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Ludek Madle at 55.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 2–2 Ladislav Novotny Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2755.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Madle
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madle 1195 vs Novotny 1174
Madle
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madle 60% vs Novotny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madle 70% vs Novotny 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Madle -1 · Novotny +3
Novotny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Madle) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 1.666 / Novotny 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Madle)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243651
Madle1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 72 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it72% 52 of 72
Novotny2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 37 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMadle2wins
AwayNovotny2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadlen = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNovotny66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madle1Novotny3n = 4Novotny took 3 of 4
S2Madle2Novotny2n = 4split evenly
S3Madle2Novotny2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricMadleNovotnyM − NBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match28.031.2−3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 545 vs 195 / 39148.1%49.9%262 / 545 vs 195 / 391Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MadleMadle 1.67/Novotny 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 1 · 10:30L. Madle351111133L. Novotny2586110
LSep 14 · 13:00L. Madle2046100L. Novotny341111123
LSep 14 · 10:00L. Madle225890L. Novotny331111113
WJul 15 · 07:00L. Madle3521111113L. Novotny33119851
L. Madle10
LOct 5 · 06:30J. Potensky1.831110119113L. Madle1.8341291192WOct 3 · 09:30L. Madle1.4091111113A. Tkachenko2.70116241WOct 3 · 08:30L. Madle1.331361112113P. Serak3.25151171052LOct 3 · 07:00L. Madle1.36116291J. Strnad3.0041111113WOct 3 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.6361180L. Madle1.441113113WOct 1 · 13:30L. Madle1.6581113113J. Cernik2.101191181WOct 1 · 12:30C. Havrda3.002690L. Madle1.361111113WOct 1 · 11:30L. Madle1.5713111114183J. Cernik2.25159916162WOct 1 · 10:30L. Novotny1.8086110L. Madle1.911111133LSep 28 · 09:30L. Madle1.4311661142J. Martinek2.60711115113
L. Novotny10
WOct 5 · 06:00L. Novotny3.2511118113J. Svec1.33381161WOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231WOct 1 · 12:00J. Cernik2.005740L. Novotny1.731111113LOct 1 · 11:00C. Havrda2.7511811113L. Novotny1.40711841LOct 1 · 10:30L. Novotny1.8086110L. Madle1.911111133WOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny1.831111113J. Potensky1.837780LOct 1 · 08:30L. Novotny1.9181171172A. Hejduk1.80115117113WOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny2.2011116113J. Potensky1.61761151WOct 1 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.4011591192L. Novotny2.75611119113LSep 30 · 13:30D. Mutl1.6091111113L. Novotny2.20118871
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