TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Leos Havrda vs Jan Potensky 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Potensky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLeos Havrda above · Jan Potensky below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Jan Potensky at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Leos Havrda 3–3 Jan Potensky Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:2854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Potensky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1201 vs Potensky 1190
Havrda
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 40% vs Potensky 60%
Potensky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 40% vs Potensky 60%
Potensky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda +2 · Potensky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Potensky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 1.909 / Potensky 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Potensky)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228038
Havrda1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 45 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Potensky1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 45 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHavrda3wins
AwayPotensky3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrdan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPotensky75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda2Potensky4n = 6Potensky took 4 of 6
S2Havrda2Potensky4n = 6Potensky took 4 of 6
S3Havrda3Potensky3n = 6split evenly
S4Havrda2Potensky1n = 3Havrda took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricHavrdaPotenskyH − PBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match32.232.20.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaPotenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 491 vs 221 / 46645.4%47.4%223 / 491 vs 221 / 466Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PotenskyHavrda 1.91/Potensky 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Potensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 22 · 01:30L. Havrda341111123J. Potensky1541100
LJun 30 · 22:30L. Havrda331011481J. Potensky4212811113
WJun 12 · 22:30L. Havrda40431111113J. Potensky3711115552
LApr 25 · 03:00L. Havrda2591060J. Potensky341112113
WApr 25 · 01:30L. Havrda4211911113J. Potensky32411891
LJul 25 · 22:30L. Havrda199370J. Potensky331111113
L. Havrda10
WOct 3 · 03:30L. Havrda1.731211113J. Potensky2.0010260WOct 3 · 01:30V. Stach1.67119391L. Havrda2.1061111113WOct 3 · 00:00L. Havrda1.3611116113J. Martinek3.00271191LOct 2 · 23:00J. Cernik2.751281111113L. Havrda1.4014118992LSep 30 · 17:03L. Havrda3.7510811101M. Syroha1.2512114123LSep 30 · 16:30M. Syroha1.2215119113L. Havrda4.001331161WSep 30 · 15:30L. Havrda1.7311911113J. Grohsgott2.00611771LSep 30 · 14:30M. Novotny2.1013811113L. Havrda1.671111681LSep 26 · 21:30J. Grohsgott2.201111123L. Havrda1.6075100LSep 26 · 20:00L. Havrda4.00126631M. Syroha1.22101111113
J. Potensky10
LOct 3 · 03:30L. Havrda1.731211113J. Potensky2.0010260WOct 3 · 01:00J. Martinek2.3810650J. Potensky1.531211113LOct 2 · 23:30J. Potensky2.10112134102V. Stach1.678111111123WOct 2 · 22:00J. Potensky1.4011311113J. Cernik2.75511731LOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny1.831111113J. Potensky1.837780WOct 1 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.61661181J. Potensky2.2011113113LOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny2.2011116113J. Potensky1.61761151WOct 1 · 06:30J. Potensky1.571111113A. Hejduk2.257950WSep 30 · 09:08J. Potensky1.5011116113D. Mutl2.40421191LSep 30 · 08:30J. Potensky1.911110651M. Vrabec1.8041211113
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