TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Potensky vs Vojtech Stach 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11821113114111012
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:20 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeVojtech Stach to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Potensky above · Vojtech Stach below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 93 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Vojtech Stach at 55.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Potensky 1–2 Vojtech Stach Jan Potensky has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2055.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stach
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potensky 1187 vs Stach 1176
Potensky
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potensky 60% vs Stach 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potensky 60% vs Stach 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potensky +1 · Stach -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Stach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potensky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotensky 2.10 / Stach 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Stach)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228262
Potensky2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 46 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Stach1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As favourite60% won 30 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it79% 22 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePotensky1wins
AwayStach2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderStach leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potensky2Stach1n = 3Potensky took 2 of 3
S2Potensky0Stach3n = 3Stach took 3 of 3
S3Potensky3Stach0n = 3Potensky took 3 of 3
S4Potensky2Stach1n = 3Potensky took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPotenskyStachP − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match43.541.5+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotenskyStachBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 464 vs 78 / 15247.4%51.3%220 / 464 vs 78 / 152Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StachPotensky 2.10/Stach 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 27 · 07:00J. Potensky3811511113V. Stach34811781
LAug 21 · 23:00J. Potensky49971111112V. Stach49111177133
J. Potensky10
WOct 3 · 01:00J. Martinek2.3810650J. Potensky1.531211113WOct 2 · 22:00J. Potensky1.4011311113J. Cernik2.75511731LOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny1.831111113J. Potensky1.837780WOct 1 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.61661181J. Potensky2.2011113113LOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny2.2011116113J. Potensky1.61761151WOct 1 · 06:30J. Potensky1.571111113A. Hejduk2.257950WSep 30 · 09:08J. Potensky1.5011116113D. Mutl2.40421191LSep 30 · 08:30J. Potensky1.911110651M. Vrabec1.8041211113WSep 30 · 07:00J. Potensky1.611111113D. Mutl2.204150WSep 30 · 06:30J. Cernik1.8511561142J. Potensky1.85411115113
V. Stach10
LOct 3 · 00:30J. Cernik2.101111113V. Stach1.679090LOct 2 · 22:30V. Stach1.3611118582J. Martinek3.00851111113WOct 1 · 17:30M. Vaclavik1.6041121162V. Stach2.20117114113WOct 1 · 16:30V. Stach1.801311113Z. Kasinski1.9111680WOct 1 · 15:00V. Stach1.83116115113J. Cernik1.8371191192LOct 1 · 14:00M. Vaclavik1.53611116123V. Stach2.38116311102LSep 28 · 02:58M. Vaclavik1.831113113V. Stach1.8381140LSep 28 · 02:00V. Stach1.6197110J. Cernik2.201111133WSep 28 · 01:00V. Stach2.101051110113J. Potensky1.6771161242LSep 28 · 00:00J. Grohsgott1.501111143V. Stach2.5037120
Upcoming Matches
J. Potensky
V. Stach
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.