TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Grohsgott vs Jan Potensky 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611611113811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Grohsgott to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Jan Potensky below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 67 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jiri Grohsgott at 58.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 30–31 Jan Potensky Jiri Grohsgott has won 30 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5758.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Grohsgott
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-31 in 61
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1205 vs Potensky 1192
Grohsgott
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 0% vs Potensky 60%
Potensky
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 50% vs Potensky 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott -5 · Potensky -1
Grohsgott
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Grohsgott) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potensky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 1.615 / Potensky 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Grohsgott)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222528
Grohsgott1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 144 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it97% 83 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it84% 114 of 136
Potensky2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As underdog42% won 45 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott6wins
AwayPotensky4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderGrohsgott leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott75%3 of 4
AwayPotensky50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott4Potensky6n = 10Potensky took 6 of 10
S2Grohsgott8Potensky2n = 10Grohsgott took 8 of 10
S3Grohsgott5Potensky5n = 10split evenly
S4Grohsgott5Potensky3n = 8Grohsgott took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottPotenskyG − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.533.2+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottPotenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime739 / 1506 vs 219 / 46249.1%47.4%739 / 1506 vs 219 / 462Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.135.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottGrohsgott 1.61/Potensky 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Potensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 02:30J. Grohsgott4011117113J. Potensky33581191
WAug 30 · 23:00J. Grohsgott43111110113J. Potensky32951261
LAug 27 · 09:30J. Grohsgott24117331J. Potensky4071111113
LAug 27 · 08:00J. Grohsgott238780J. Potensky331111113
WAug 24 · 08:00J. Grohsgott4171211113J. Potensky301110451
WAug 11 · 09:06J. Grohsgott3741111113J. Potensky32115971
LAug 11 · 06:00J. Grohsgott4231111892J. Potensky43114611113
LAug 6 · 07:30J. Grohsgott31611861J. Potensky3811511113
WJul 29 · 03:30J. Grohsgott4181111113J. Potensky28115751
WJul 29 · 01:00J. Grohsgott331111113J. Potensky239950
J. Grohsgott10
LOct 1 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.63561311113J. Grohsgott1.44111111992LOct 1 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.4011591192L. Novotny2.75611119113LSep 30 · 17:30M. Novotny1.30111011113J. Grohsgott3.10712651LSep 30 · 16:00J. Grohsgott3.006101171M. Novotny1.3611125113LSep 30 · 15:30L. Havrda1.7311911113J. Grohsgott2.00611771WSep 30 · 14:00J. Grohsgott1.611111113M. Syroha2.206850WSep 28 · 03:30J. Cernik2.609250J. Grohsgott1.451111113WSep 28 · 02:30J. Grohsgott1.8011117113J. Potensky1.90581191WSep 28 · 01:30M. Vaclavik1.73168851J. Grohsgott2.00141111113WSep 28 · 00:00J. Grohsgott1.501111143V. Stach2.5037120
J. Potensky10
LOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny2.2011116113J. Potensky1.61761151WOct 1 · 06:30J. Potensky1.571111113A. Hejduk2.257950WSep 30 · 09:08J. Potensky1.5011116113D. Mutl2.40421191LSep 30 · 08:30J. Potensky1.911110651M. Vrabec1.8041211113WSep 30 · 07:00J. Potensky1.611111113D. Mutl2.204150WSep 30 · 06:30J. Cernik1.8511561142J. Potensky1.85411115113LSep 28 · 02:30J. Grohsgott1.8011117113J. Potensky1.90581191LSep 28 · 01:00V. Stach2.101051110113J. Potensky1.6771161242LSep 27 · 23:30J. Potensky2.106490M. Vaclavik1.671111113LSep 27 · 22:00J. Potensky1.3091170J. Cernik3.401113113
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