TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Leos Havrda vs Jaroslav Martinek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112117611119––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:49 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeLeos Havrda to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLeos Havrda above · Jaroslav Martinek below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 68 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Leos Havrda at 70.4%
68 points played in total.
H2H Leos Havrda 8–1 Jaroslav Martinek Jaroslav Martinek has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4970.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Havrda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-1 in 9
Havrda
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1213 vs Martinek 1183
Havrda
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 20% vs Martinek 80%
Martinek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 30% vs Martinek 70%
Martinek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda -3 · Martinek +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Havrda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martinek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 1.363 / Martinek 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Havrda)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228129
Havrda1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 34 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Martinek3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 20 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHavrda8wins
AwayMartinek1wins
1 of 9 to a deciderHavrda leads 8–1, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda100%8 of 8
AwayMartinekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda8Martinek1n = 9Havrda took 8 of 9
S2Havrda7Martinek2n = 9Havrda took 7 of 9
S3Havrda7Martinek2n = 9Havrda took 7 of 9
S4Havrda4Martinek1n = 5Havrda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricHavrdaMartinekH − MBasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set81+7of 9Avg pointsper match38.428.6+9.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaMartinekBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 490 vs 82 / 16745.3%49.1%222 / 490 vs 82 / 167Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaHavrda 1.36/Martinek 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 3 · 00:00L. Havrda3911116113J. Martinek29271191
LAug 23 · 09:30L. Havrda50161111842J. Martinek55189611113
WAug 23 · 07:30L. Havrda371511113J. Martinek2413650
WAug 1 · 08:58L. Havrda331111113J. Martinek188910
WAug 1 · 08:00L. Havrda331111113J. Martinek227960
WMay 31 · 00:30L. Havrda4111811113J. Martinek32711771
WMay 24 · 02:00L. Havrda4213711113J. Martinek301111351
WFeb 22 · 03:00L. Havrda3811115113J. Martinek27281161
WFeb 7 · 19:30L. Havrda331111113J. Martinek206680
L. Havrda10
LOct 2 · 23:00J. Cernik2.751281111113L. Havrda1.4014118992LSep 30 · 17:03L. Havrda3.7510811101M. Syroha1.2512114123LSep 30 · 16:30M. Syroha1.2215119113L. Havrda4.001331161WSep 30 · 15:30L. Havrda1.7311911113J. Grohsgott2.00611771LSep 30 · 14:30M. Novotny2.1013811113L. Havrda1.671111681LSep 26 · 21:30J. Grohsgott2.201111123L. Havrda1.6075100LSep 26 · 20:00L. Havrda4.00126631M. Syroha1.22101111113WSep 26 · 19:30V. Stach1.5361191172L. Havrda2.38117118113WSep 26 · 18:00L. Havrda1.6171111113J. Grohsgott2.20117591LSep 25 · 17:30M. Lubas1.731111113L. Havrda2.006530
J. Martinek10
LOct 3 · 01:00J. Martinek2.3810650J. Potensky1.531211113WOct 2 · 22:30V. Stach1.3611118582J. Martinek3.00851111113WSep 28 · 09:30L. Madle1.4311661142J. Martinek2.60711115113WSep 28 · 08:00J. Martinek2.5016611113M. Marjan1.501411681WSep 28 · 07:30J. Strnad4.00114651J. Martinek1.2271111113LSep 28 · 06:00J. Martinek1.91611661L. Madle1.8011911113WSep 26 · 09:30J. Martinek1.521115113L. Novotny2.3571390WSep 26 · 08:30L. Novotny1.91126691J. Martinek1.80101111113WSep 26 · 07:30J. Martinek1.7311711133D. Tomasch2.005118111LSep 26 · 06:30J. Cernik2.6311119113J. Martinek1.44481181
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