TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jaromir Cernik vs Leos Havrda 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1214811118119119
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched: 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeLeos Havrda to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · Leos Havrda below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 104 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Leos Havrda at 70.3%
104 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 16–20 Leos Havrda Jaromir Cernik has won 16 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:4670.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Havrda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-20 in 36
Havrda
Wrong
gap of 4 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1096 vs Havrda 1215
Havrda
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 20% vs Havrda 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 20% vs Havrda 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -4 · Havrda -2
Cernik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Havrda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 2.75 / Havrda 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Havrda)-1.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13226904
Cernik2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 61 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back9% 7 of 76
Havrda1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 34 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik4wins
AwayHavrda6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHavrda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik66.7%2 of 3
AwayHavrda71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik3Havrda7n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S2Cernik2Havrda8n = 10Havrda took 8 of 10
S3Cernik4Havrda6n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S4Cernik4Havrda1n = 5Cernik took 4 of 5
S5Cernik2Havrda1n = 3Cernik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikHavrdaC − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.536.2−2.7per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 785 vs 223 / 49245.1%45.3%354 / 785 vs 223 / 492Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaCernik 2.75/Havrda 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.3%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 08:00J. Cernik162770L. Havrda331111113
LAug 21 · 22:30J. Cernik344911101L. Havrda4311119123
LAug 15 · 13:04J. Cernik26101060L. Havrda351212113
WAug 15 · 11:00J. Cernik46581111113L. Havrda4311118672
WJul 11 · 12:00J. Cernik331111113L. Havrda175570
WJun 28 · 12:30J. Cernik4113116113L. Havrda361161181
LMay 30 · 13:07J. Cernik31121360L. Havrda401415113
LMay 30 · 12:00J. Cernik4111821192L. Havrda40411113113
WMar 8 · 01:00J. Cernik52981111133L. Havrda42111127112
LFeb 21 · 14:30J. Cernik155640L. Havrda331111113
J. Cernik10
WOct 3 · 00:30J. Cernik2.101111113V. Stach1.679090LOct 2 · 22:00J. Potensky1.4011311113J. Cernik2.75511731LOct 1 · 16:59J. Cernik1.50111211692Z. Kasinski2.50414911113LOct 1 · 16:00M. Vaclavik1.361111113J. Cernik3.004160LOct 1 · 15:00V. Stach1.83116115113J. Cernik1.8371191192WOct 1 · 14:30J. Cernik2.6381211123Z. Kasinski1.4411107101LOct 1 · 13:30L. Madle1.6581113113J. Cernik2.101191181LOct 1 · 12:00J. Cernik2.005740L. Novotny1.731111113LOct 1 · 11:30L. Madle1.5713111114183J. Cernik2.25159916162WOct 1 · 10:00J. Cernik1.361111123C. Havrda3.0078100
L. Havrda10
WOct 3 · 00:00L. Havrda1.3611116113J. Martinek3.00271191LSep 30 · 17:03L. Havrda3.7510811101M. Syroha1.2512114123LSep 30 · 16:30M. Syroha1.2215119113L. Havrda4.001331161WSep 30 · 15:30L. Havrda1.7311911113J. Grohsgott2.00611771LSep 30 · 14:30M. Novotny2.1013811113L. Havrda1.671111681LSep 26 · 21:30J. Grohsgott2.201111123L. Havrda1.6075100LSep 26 · 20:00L. Havrda4.00126631M. Syroha1.22101111113WSep 26 · 19:30V. Stach1.5361191172L. Havrda2.38117118113WSep 26 · 18:00L. Havrda1.6171111113J. Grohsgott2.20117591LSep 25 · 17:30M. Lubas1.731111113L. Havrda2.006530
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