TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Mutl vs Jiri Grohsgott 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111513116119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:53 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Grohsgott to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jiri Grohsgott @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Jiri Grohsgott below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 85 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Jiri Grohsgott at 63.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 5–12 Jiri Grohsgott David Mutl has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Grohsgott beat Mutl 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 09:53Sent to Pro: Jiri Grohsgott @ 1.50 · Lost
63.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
clears by 1.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Grohsgott
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-12 in 17
Grohsgott
Wrong
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1167 vs Grohsgott 1231
Grohsgott
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 60% vs Grohsgott 80%
Grohsgott
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 40% vs Grohsgott 60%
Grohsgott
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl +1 · Grohsgott +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Grohsgott) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grohsgott form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 2.20 / Grohsgott 1.615
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Grohsgott)+1.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13264550
Mutl2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 37 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 39
Grohsgott1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 144 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it93% 81 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it81% 109 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMutl3wins
AwayGrohsgott7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGrohsgott leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMutl66.7%2 of 3
AwayGrohsgott85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl3Grohsgott7n = 10Grohsgott took 7 of 10
S2Mutl2Grohsgott8n = 10Grohsgott took 8 of 10
S3Mutl5Grohsgott5n = 10split evenly
S4Mutl2Grohsgott4n = 6Grohsgott took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMutlGrohsgottM − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.837.4−6.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlGrohsgottBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 163 vs 731 / 149147.9%49%78 / 163 vs 731 / 1491Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottMutl 2.20/Grohsgott 1.61
Miss
What we said
63.7%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jiri Grohsgott @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 09:30D. Mutl3711511642J. Grohsgott49711911113
WOct 9 · 08:00D. Mutl52119129113J. Grohsgott50911101192
LOct 6 · 22:30D. Mutl23721131J. Grohsgott4011117113
WOct 5 · 00:30D. Mutl4071111113J. Grohsgott31116591
LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl36881191J. Grohsgott3911116113
LSep 2 · 08:59D. Mutl2611780J. Grohsgott351311113
LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl176560J. Grohsgott331111113
LAug 31 · 00:30D. Mutl156270J. Grohsgott331111113
WAug 29 · 22:30D. Mutl4111118113J. Grohsgott31591161
LJul 15 · 03:00D. Mutl219480J. Grohsgott331111113
D. Mutl10
WOct 9 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.57911151162D. Mutl2.25119179113LOct 9 · 09:30J. Grohsgott1.73711911113D. Mutl2.0011511642WOct 9 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.50911101192D. Mutl2.50119129113WOct 9 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.731191191D. Mutl2.0013117113LOct 9 · 06:30D. Mutl1.4449111192M. Smesny2.63111194113LOct 7 · 02:00D. Mutl1.831161121L. Madle1.8381113113LOct 7 · 01:00D. Mutl4.337111171S. Mazanek1.2011134113WOct 7 · 00:00M. Syroha2.0091181172D. Mutl1.73118118113LOct 6 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.5311117113D. Mutl2.38721131LOct 5 · 03:30S. Mazanek1.351111113D. Mutl2.908880
J. Grohsgott10
WOct 9 · 10:30J. Grohsgott2.251311113V. Hruska Sr1.5711690WOct 9 · 09:30J. Grohsgott1.73711911113D. Mutl2.0011511642LOct 9 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.50911101192D. Mutl2.50119129113WOct 9 · 07:30M. Smesny2.75411581J. Grohsgott1.4011911113WOct 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.73111199113M. Vrabec2.0086111142LOct 7 · 03:00J. Grohsgott1.73211241M. Syroha2.0011811113LOct 7 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.737360M. Syroha2.001111113LOct 7 · 00:30L. Madle1.8081111113J. Grohsgott1.91115991WOct 6 · 23:30S. Mazanek1.675930J. Grohsgott2.101111113WOct 6 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.5311117113D. Mutl2.38721131
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