TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Mutl vs Stanislav Mazanek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111113114711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:57 and never touched: 81.8% is still 81.8%
Graded at full timeStanislav Mazanek to win
81.8%
81.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Stanislav Mazanek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Stanislav Mazanek at 81.8%
75 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 2–11 Stanislav Mazanek David Mutl has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:5781.8%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 1.5pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Mazanek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-11 in 13
Mazanek
Correct
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1164 vs Mazanek 1204
Mazanek
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 40% vs Mazanek 60%
Mazanek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 50% vs Mazanek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl +1 · Mazanek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% · Strong (leans Mazanek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mazanek form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 4.333 / Mazanek 1.20
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Mazanek)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13249214
Mutl4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 37 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 37
Mazanek1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 52 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it77% 33 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMutl1wins
AwayMazanek9wins
Mazanek leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMutln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMazanek88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl1Mazanek9n = 10Mazanek took 9 of 10
S2Mutl1Mazanek9n = 10Mazanek took 9 of 10
S3Mutl2Mazanek8n = 10Mazanek took 8 of 10
S4Mutl1Mazanek2n = 3Mazanek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricMutlMazanekMutl − MazanekBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match26.736.1−9.4per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlMazanekBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 156 vs 145 / 29548.1%49.2%75 / 156 vs 145 / 295Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MazanekMutl 4.33/Mazanek 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.8%
Mazanek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mazanek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 03:30D. Mutl248880S. Mazanek331111113
LOct 5 · 01:30D. Mutl174760S. Mazanek331111113
LSep 16 · 00:00D. Mutl187650S. Mazanek331111113
LAug 4 · 01:00D. Mutl391217100S. Mazanek451419123
LJul 15 · 00:00D. Mutl258980S. Mazanek331111113
WJul 10 · 03:28D. Mutl4071111113S. Mazanek34119681
LJul 9 · 22:30D. Mutl28114941S. Mazanek3961111113
LJul 7 · 22:30D. Mutl186480S. Mazanek331111113
LJul 2 · 22:00D. Mutl2485110S. Mazanek351111133
LJun 30 · 23:00D. Mutl349101141S. Mazanek4311129113
D. Mutl10
WOct 7 · 00:00M. Syroha2.0091181172D. Mutl1.73118118113LOct 6 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.5311117113D. Mutl2.38721131LOct 5 · 03:30S. Mazanek1.351111113D. Mutl2.908880LOct 5 · 01:30D. Mutl3.504760S. Mazanek1.281111113WOct 5 · 00:30J. Grohsgott1.40116591D. Mutl2.7571111113WOct 4 · 23:30M. Syroha2.2511134492D. Mutl1.579111111113WOct 4 · 22:30D. Mutl1.531512123J. Cernik2.381310100LOct 4 · 17:30D. Mutl1.901111441Z. Kasinski1.8013411113WOct 4 · 16:00V. Stach1.5358111172D. Mutl2.38111185113LOct 4 · 15:00Z. Kasinski1.83711711113D. Mutl1.8311511562
S. Mazanek10
LOct 6 · 23:30S. Mazanek1.675930J. Grohsgott2.101111113LOct 6 · 22:00S. Mazanek1.571111101172L. Madle2.25813126113WOct 5 · 03:30S. Mazanek1.351111113D. Mutl2.908880WOct 5 · 02:30S. Mazanek1.9111115113M. Syroha1.80841131WOct 5 · 01:30D. Mutl3.504760S. Mazanek1.281111113WOct 5 · 00:00S. Mazanek1.331111113J. Cernik3.251050LOct 4 · 23:00J. Grohsgott2.3811138113S. Mazanek1.535111161LOct 2 · 02:58A. Hejduk2.2591311113S. Mazanek1.571111651LOct 2 · 02:00S. Mazanek1.409116101A. Hejduk2.7511411123WOct 2 · 01:00S. Mazanek1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.009360
Upcoming Matches
D. Mutl
Nothing scheduled
S. Mazanek
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