TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Grohsgott vs David Mutl 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117611511911––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:16 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Grohsgott to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Jiri Grohsgott at 67.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 10–3 David Mutl David Mutl has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:1667.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Grohsgott
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Grohsgott
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1173 vs Mutl 1175
Mutl
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 20% vs Mutl 60%
Mutl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 20% vs Mutl 80%
Mutl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott +1 · Mutl +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Grohsgott) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 1.40 / Mutl 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Grohsgott)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238656
Grohsgott1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 143 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it94% 81 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it82% 112 of 137
Mutl2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 34 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott8wins
AwayMutl2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderGrohsgott leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott100%7 of 7
AwayMutl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott7Mutl3n = 10Grohsgott took 7 of 10
S2Grohsgott9Mutl1n = 10Grohsgott took 9 of 10
S3Grohsgott7Mutl3n = 10Grohsgott took 7 of 10
S4Grohsgott2Mutl3n = 5Mutl took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottMutlG − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.229.6+5.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime735 / 1499 vs 73 / 15149%48.3%735 / 1499 vs 73 / 151Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.135.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottGrohsgott 1.40/Mutl 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 10:30J. Grohsgott3911116113D. Mutl36881191
WSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott351311113D. Mutl2611780
WSep 2 · 07:00J. Grohsgott331111113D. Mutl176560
WAug 31 · 00:30J. Grohsgott331111113D. Mutl156270
LAug 29 · 22:30J. Grohsgott31591161D. Mutl4111118113
WJul 15 · 03:00J. Grohsgott331111113D. Mutl219480
WJul 15 · 01:00J. Grohsgott331111113D. Mutl142570
WJul 13 · 00:30J. Grohsgott4011117113D. Mutl35981171
LJul 3 · 02:30J. Grohsgott28611741D. Mutl4211911113
WJun 30 · 22:00J. Grohsgott47611127113D. Mutl49119101182
J. Grohsgott10
WOct 4 · 23:00J. Grohsgott2.3811138113S. Mazanek1.535111161LOct 4 · 22:00M. Syroha2.00591112113J. Grohsgott1.73111171072LOct 2 · 02:30M. Vaclavik1.671111113J. Grohsgott2.108360LOct 2 · 01:00S. Mazanek1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.009360LOct 1 · 23:30J. Grohsgott1.57111188112M. Syroha2.25941111133LOct 1 · 22:00J. Grohsgott1.53711561A. Hejduk2.3811911113WOct 1 · 08:59A. Hejduk2.1011891342J. Grohsgott1.677111111113LOct 1 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.61661181J. Potensky2.2011113113LOct 1 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.63561311113J. Grohsgott1.44111111992LOct 1 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.4011591192L. Novotny2.75611119113
D. Mutl10
LOct 5 · 01:30D. Mutl3.504760S. Mazanek1.281111113WOct 4 · 23:30M. Syroha2.2511134492D. Mutl1.579111111113WOct 4 · 22:30D. Mutl1.531512123J. Cernik2.381310100LOct 4 · 17:30D. Mutl1.901111441Z. Kasinski1.8013411113WOct 4 · 16:00V. Stach1.5358111172D. Mutl2.38111185113LOct 4 · 15:00Z. Kasinski1.83711711113D. Mutl1.8311511562WOct 4 · 14:30D. Mutl2.381215113M. Vrabec1.53101330WSep 30 · 13:30D. Mutl1.6091111113L. Novotny2.20118871WSep 30 · 12:30L. Novotny2.20101070D. Mutl1.611212113WSep 30 · 11:30D. Mutl2.75111211113M. Vaclavik1.40814881
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