TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Grohsgott vs Stanislav Mazanek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151311811116––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:05 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeStanislav Mazanek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Stanislav Mazanek @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Stanislav Mazanek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 76 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Stanislav Mazanek at 54.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 25–29 Stanislav Mazanek Jiri Grohsgott has won 25 of their 54 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:0554.9%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 10.3pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mazanek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-29 in 54
Mazanek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1160 vs Mazanek 1191
Mazanek
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 0% vs Mazanek 20%
Mazanek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 10% vs Mazanek 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott -5 · Mazanek -2
Grohsgott
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Mazanek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mazanek form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 2.375 / Mazanek 1.533
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Mazanek)-10.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13237629
Grohsgott2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 129 of 353
Down 0–1, comes back21% 41 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 115
Mazanek1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 50 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott2wins
AwayMazanek8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMazanek leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott33.3%1 of 3
AwayMazanek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott3Mazanek6n = 9Mazanek took 6 of 9
S2Grohsgott2Mazanek7n = 9Mazanek took 7 of 9
S3Grohsgott4Mazanek5n = 9Mazanek took 5 of 9
S4Grohsgott6Mazanek1n = 7Grohsgott took 6 of 7
S5Grohsgott1Mazanek5n = 6Mazanek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottMazanekG − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match39.041.2−2.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottMazanekBasisWin rate · lifetime734 / 1498 vs 141 / 28849%49%734 / 1498 vs 141 / 288Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MazanekGrohsgott 2.38/Mazanek 1.53
Miss
What we said
54.9%
Mazanek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Stanislav Mazanek @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Grohsgott won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 2 · 01:00J. Grohsgott189360S. Mazanek331111113
LSep 23 · 02:00J. Grohsgott41113611102S. Mazanek50711119123
LAug 19 · 00:00J. Grohsgott4411911852S. Mazanek46811511113
LAug 11 · 23:30J. Grohsgott541310111192S. Mazanek49151229113
LJul 15 · 02:30J. Grohsgott227780S. Mazanek331111113
LJul 3 · 03:28J. Grohsgott4596111182S. Mazanek50111198113
WJul 2 · 23:00J. Grohsgott511171111113S. Mazanek3913117622
WJul 1 · 03:30J. Grohsgott4011117113S. Mazanek28481151
LJul 1 · 02:30J. Grohsgott3631151162S. Mazanek43116114113
J. Grohsgott10
LOct 4 · 22:00M. Syroha2.00591112113J. Grohsgott1.73111171072LOct 2 · 02:30M. Vaclavik1.671111113J. Grohsgott2.108360LOct 2 · 01:00S. Mazanek1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.009360LOct 1 · 23:30J. Grohsgott1.57111188112M. Syroha2.25941111133LOct 1 · 22:00J. Grohsgott1.53711561A. Hejduk2.3811911113WOct 1 · 08:59A. Hejduk2.1011891342J. Grohsgott1.677111111113LOct 1 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.61661181J. Potensky2.2011113113LOct 1 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.63561311113J. Grohsgott1.44111111992LOct 1 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.4011591192L. Novotny2.75611119113LSep 30 · 17:30M. Novotny1.30111011113J. Grohsgott3.10712651
S. Mazanek10
WOct 5 · 00:00S. Mazanek1.331111113J. Cernik3.251050LOct 2 · 02:58A. Hejduk2.2591311113S. Mazanek1.571111651LOct 2 · 02:00S. Mazanek1.409116101A. Hejduk2.7511411123WOct 2 · 01:00S. Mazanek1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.009360LOct 2 · 00:00M. Vaclavik2.38121211113S. Mazanek1.531410551LOct 1 · 22:30M. Syroha1.91114126133S. Mazanek1.809111011112WSep 23 · 02:00S. Mazanek1.73711119123J. Grohsgott2.00113611102LSep 23 · 01:00S. Mazanek2.63691161J. Pelikan1.4411118113LSep 23 · 00:00P. Bruzek1.501111113S. Mazanek2.508590LSep 22 · 22:30J. Pleskot2.001111113S. Mazanek1.739990
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