TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Stanislav Mazanek vs Ludek Madle 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11811131012116711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeStanislav Mazanek to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStanislav Mazanek above · Ludek Madle below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 100 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Stanislav Mazanek at 58.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Stanislav Mazanek 14–12 Ludek Madle Ludek Madle has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:5558.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mazanek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Mazanek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mazanek 1229 vs Madle 1184
Mazanek
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mazanek 80% vs Madle 40%
Mazanek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mazanek 50% vs Madle 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mazanek +4 · Madle -2
Mazanek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Mazanek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mazanek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMazanek 1.571 / Madle 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Mazanek)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13247785
Mazanek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 05)
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 52 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it77% 33 of 43
Madle2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 05)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 39 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back8% 3 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMazanek5wins
AwayMadle5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMazanekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMadle62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mazanek2Madle8n = 10Madle took 8 of 10
S2Mazanek6Madle4n = 10Mazanek took 6 of 10
S3Mazanek7Madle3n = 10Mazanek took 7 of 10
S4Mazanek4Madle3n = 7Mazanek took 4 of 7
S5Mazanek1Madle2n = 3Madle took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMazanekMadleMazanek − MadleBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.337.8+0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMazanekMadleBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 293 vs 263 / 54849.5%48%145 / 293 vs 263 / 548Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MazanekMazanek 1.57/Madle 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Mazanek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 23:00S. Mazanek526111311113L. Madle5111815892
WAug 3 · 23:30S. Mazanek3741111113L. Madle37119891
WJul 10 · 00:30S. Mazanek44111011123L. Madle314125101
LJun 26 · 02:58S. Mazanek4481111952L. Madle48116911113
LJun 26 · 02:00S. Mazanek311011100L. Madle371213123
LJun 19 · 03:30S. Mazanek248970L. Madle331111113
LJun 19 · 00:30S. Mazanek48711111182L. Madle52118913113
WMay 14 · 02:00S. Mazanek4291111113L. Madle28112871
LApr 10 · 00:30S. Mazanek28651161L. Madle3711114113
WApr 8 · 02:30S. Mazanek331111113L. Madle248880
S. Mazanek10
WOct 5 · 03:30S. Mazanek1.351111113D. Mutl2.908880WOct 5 · 02:30S. Mazanek1.9111115113M. Syroha1.80841131WOct 5 · 01:30D. Mutl3.504760S. Mazanek1.281111113WOct 5 · 00:00S. Mazanek1.331111113J. Cernik3.251050LOct 4 · 23:00J. Grohsgott2.3811138113S. Mazanek1.535111161LOct 2 · 02:58A. Hejduk2.2591311113S. Mazanek1.571111651LOct 2 · 02:00S. Mazanek1.409116101A. Hejduk2.7511411123WOct 2 · 01:00S. Mazanek1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.009360LOct 2 · 00:00M. Vaclavik2.38121211113S. Mazanek1.531410551LOct 1 · 22:30M. Syroha1.91114126133S. Mazanek1.809111011112
L. Madle10
LOct 5 · 09:04L. Madle2.7571111762J. Svec1.40119911113LOct 5 · 08:30J. Svec1.611112116123L. Madle2.20514611102WOct 5 · 07:30L. Madle1.671111113L. Novotny2.105780LOct 5 · 06:30J. Potensky1.831110119113L. Madle1.8341291192WOct 3 · 09:30L. Madle1.4091111113A. Tkachenko2.70116241WOct 3 · 08:30L. Madle1.331361112113P. Serak3.25151171052LOct 3 · 07:00L. Madle1.36116291J. Strnad3.0041111113WOct 3 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.6361180L. Madle1.441113113WOct 1 · 13:30L. Madle1.6581113113J. Cernik2.101191181WOct 1 · 12:30C. Havrda3.002690L. Madle1.361111113
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