TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Syroha vs David Mutl 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118811118711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:59 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Syroha above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 · our read held David Mutl at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Michal Syroha 1–4 David Mutl Michal Syroha has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mutl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Mutl
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Syroha 1228 vs Mutl 1164
Syroha
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Syroha 20% vs Mutl 40%
Mutl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Syroha 30% vs Mutl 50%
Mutl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Syroha -2 · Mutl -3
Mutl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mutl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSyroha 2.00 / Mutl 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mutl)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13249285
Syroha2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 84 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back29% 37 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back18% 14 of 77
Mutl1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 30 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSyroha1wins
AwayMutl4wins
4 of 5 to a deciderMutl leads 4–1, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSyroha25%1 of 4
AwayMutln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Syroha4Mutl1n = 5Syroha took 4 of 5
S2Syroha3Mutl2n = 5Syroha took 3 of 5
S3Syroha1Mutl4n = 5Mutl took 4 of 5
S4Syroha1Mutl4n = 5Mutl took 4 of 5
S5Syroha1Mutl3n = 4Mutl took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away360%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSyrohaMutlS − MBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match44.648.2−3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSyrohaMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 712 vs 75 / 15650.1%48.1%357 / 712 vs 75 / 156Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MutlSyroha 2.00/Mutl 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 7 · 00:00M. Syroha4691181172D. Mutl49118118113
LOct 4 · 23:30M. Syroha4111134492D. Mutl539111111113
WSep 15 · 22:30M. Syroha51119119113D. Mutl4881191192
LAug 29 · 20:00M. Syroha4211119111D. Mutl4581311133
LJul 15 · 02:00M. Syroha4311117862D. Mutl46941111113
M. Syroha10
LOct 6 · 23:00L. Madle2.256151411123M. Syroha1.571113161102LOct 6 · 17:00M. Syroha2.0511114652J. Framberk1.65591111113WOct 6 · 16:30M. Syroha1.6111114113V. Hruska Sr2.20861131LOct 6 · 15:00M. Syroha2.20711661J. Framberk1.6111311113LOct 6 · 14:00M. Barta1.408121311113M. Syroha2.75111015842LOct 5 · 03:00J. Grohsgott1.671111119123M. Syroha2.10138711102LOct 5 · 02:30S. Mazanek1.9111115113M. Syroha1.80841131WOct 5 · 01:00J. Cernik2.3812760M. Syroha1.531411113LOct 4 · 23:30M. Syroha2.2511134492D. Mutl1.579111111113WOct 4 · 22:00M. Syroha2.00591112113J. Grohsgott1.73111171072
D. Mutl10
LOct 7 · 01:00D. Mutl4.337111171S. Mazanek1.2011134113LOct 6 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.5311117113D. Mutl2.38721131LOct 5 · 03:30S. Mazanek1.351111113D. Mutl2.908880LOct 5 · 01:30D. Mutl3.504760S. Mazanek1.281111113WOct 5 · 00:30J. Grohsgott1.40116591D. Mutl2.7571111113WOct 4 · 23:30M. Syroha2.2511134492D. Mutl1.579111111113WOct 4 · 22:30D. Mutl1.531512123J. Cernik2.381310100LOct 4 · 17:30D. Mutl1.901111441Z. Kasinski1.8013411113WOct 4 · 16:00V. Stach1.5358111172D. Mutl2.38111185113LOct 4 · 15:00Z. Kasinski1.83711711113D. Mutl1.8311511562
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