TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Grohsgott vs Milan Vrabec 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118116911911114
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Grohsgott to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 91 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Jiri Grohsgott at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 16–21 Milan Vrabec Jiri Grohsgott has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5654.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Grohsgott
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-21 in 37
Vrabec
Wrong
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1205 vs Vrabec 1178
Grohsgott
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 40% vs Vrabec 60%
Vrabec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 60% vs Vrabec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott -3 · Vrabec +2
Grohsgott
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Grohsgott) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grohsgott form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 1.727 / Vrabec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Grohsgott)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13263532
Grohsgott1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 144 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it93% 81 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it81% 109 of 135
Vrabec2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 28 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott6wins
AwayVrabec4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGrohsgott leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott50%4 of 8
AwayVrabecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott8Vrabec2n = 10Grohsgott took 8 of 10
S2Grohsgott6Vrabec4n = 10Grohsgott took 6 of 10
S3Grohsgott6Vrabec4n = 10Grohsgott took 6 of 10
S4Grohsgott3Vrabec5n = 8Vrabec took 5 of 8
S5Grohsgott2Vrabec3n = 5Vrabec took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottVrabecG − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.336.4+5.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime730 / 1490 vs 185 / 36149%51.3%730 / 1490 vs 185 / 361Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottGrohsgott 1.73/Vrabec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grohsgott won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott51111199113M. Vrabec4086111142
WSep 12 · 16:00J. Grohsgott331111113M. Vrabec205780
LAug 25 · 07:30J. Grohsgott521271111112M. Vrabec481011113133
WAug 23 · 10:00J. Grohsgott48691111113M. Vrabec3511115622
LAug 22 · 08:59J. Grohsgott541110111572M. Vrabec54612817113
LAug 22 · 08:30J. Grohsgott28118541M. Vrabec3741111113
LMay 22 · 08:00J. Grohsgott4411118772M. Vrabec43461111113
WMay 17 · 06:00J. Grohsgott4161211123M. Vrabec3211101101
WMay 13 · 11:30J. Grohsgott3911116113M. Vrabec36881191
WMay 12 · 07:00J. Grohsgott331111113M. Vrabec193970
J. Grohsgott10
LOct 9 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.50911101192D. Mutl2.50119129113WOct 9 · 07:30M. Smesny2.75411581J. Grohsgott1.4011911113LOct 7 · 03:00J. Grohsgott1.73211241M. Syroha2.0011811113LOct 7 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.737360M. Syroha2.001111113LOct 7 · 00:30L. Madle1.8081111113J. Grohsgott1.91115991WOct 6 · 23:30S. Mazanek1.675930J. Grohsgott2.101111113WOct 6 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.5311117113D. Mutl2.38721131WOct 6 · 08:58J. Grohsgott1.831111113D. Tomasch1.836670WOct 6 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.67611711113D. Tomasch2.1011611782WOct 6 · 07:30M. Smesny3.00111171152J. Grohsgott1.36913116113
M. Vrabec10
WOct 9 · 08:58M. Vrabec1.4081111113M. Smesny2.75119621WOct 9 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.5011311113M. Smesny2.50411781LOct 9 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.731191191D. Mutl2.0013117113WOct 7 · 08:58M. Vrabec1.57711811113J. Potensky2.2511611772WOct 7 · 08:30J. Potensky2.10691141M. Vrabec1.6711114113LOct 7 · 07:30M. Vrabec3.75411521J. Svec1.2511711113LOct 7 · 06:30L. Novotny1.61891111113M. Vrabec2.2011114972WOct 4 · 16:59M. Vrabec1.721111113V. Stach2.005080WOct 4 · 16:30Z. Kasinski1.5711113642M. Vrabec2.25221111113WOct 4 · 15:30M. Vrabec2.0091111113V. Stach1.73117881
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