TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Vrabec vs Vojtech Stach 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911117118118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:28 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVojtech Stach to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · Vojtech Stach below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Vojtech Stach at 54.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 4–5 Vojtech Stach Milan Vrabec has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2854.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stach
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1161 vs Stach 1147
Vrabec
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 40% vs Stach 20%
Vrabec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 60% vs Stach 40%
Vrabec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec -2 · Stach -3
Stach
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stach form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 2.00 / Stach 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stach)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238924
Vrabec2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 25 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Stach1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 31 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it73% 22 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeVrabec4wins
AwayStach5wins
2 of 9 to a deciderStach leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabec100%3 of 3
AwayStach83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec3Stach6n = 9Stach took 6 of 9
S2Vrabec5Stach4n = 9Vrabec took 5 of 9
S3Vrabec6Stach3n = 9Vrabec took 6 of 9
S4Vrabec3Stach5n = 8Stach took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricVrabecStachV − SBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match37.036.3+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecStachBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 355 vs 79 / 15651%50.6%181 / 355 vs 79 / 156Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StachVrabec 2.00/Stach 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 13 · 10:30M. Vrabec44121110113V. Stach381091271
LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec26351171V. Stach4111118113
LAug 25 · 06:30M. Vrabec29311871V. Stach4011711113
LAug 15 · 13:30M. Vrabec358101161V. Stach3811124113
WAug 15 · 11:30M. Vrabec4111811113V. Stach24711151
LAug 3 · 08:00M. Vrabec4251171182V. Stach44118113113
WJun 28 · 06:00M. Vrabec331111113V. Stach134540
LAug 22 · 09:02M. Vrabec35951381V. Stach44111111113
WAug 22 · 06:30M. Vrabec48713116113V. Stach45111151172
M. Vrabec10
LOct 4 · 14:30D. Mutl2.381215113M. Vrabec1.53101330LOct 4 · 09:28M. Vrabec1.913550D. Cupec1.801111113WOct 4 · 08:00J. Hyrsl1.441181091M. Vrabec2.6341112113WOct 4 · 07:00J. Strnad2.755750M. Vrabec1.401111113LOct 4 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.533890D. Cupec2.381111113WSep 30 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.3611611113J. Cernik3.00911771WSep 30 · 08:30J. Potensky1.911110651M. Vrabec1.8041211113LSep 30 · 07:30M. Vrabec1.36111186112J. Cernik3.00591111133WSep 30 · 06:30D. Mutl2.3891170M. Vrabec1.531113113WSep 26 · 13:04M. Vrabec1.3511711123J. Cernik2.909115101
V. Stach10
LOct 4 · 16:00V. Stach1.5358111172D. Mutl2.38111185113LOct 4 · 14:00V. Stach1.67712771Z. Kasinski2.10111011113LOct 3 · 01:30V. Stach1.67119391L. Havrda2.1061111113LOct 3 · 00:30J. Cernik2.101111113V. Stach1.679090WOct 2 · 23:30J. Potensky2.10112134102V. Stach1.678111111123LOct 2 · 22:30V. Stach1.3611118582J. Martinek3.00851111113WOct 1 · 17:30M. Vaclavik1.6041121162V. Stach2.20117114113WOct 1 · 16:30V. Stach1.801311113Z. Kasinski1.9111680WOct 1 · 15:00V. Stach1.83116115113J. Cernik1.8371191192LOct 1 · 14:00M. Vaclavik1.53611116123V. Stach2.38116311102
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