TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vojtech Stach vs Zdenek Kasinski 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210711711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeVojtech Stach to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVojtech Stach above · Zdenek Kasinski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Vojtech Stach at 56.6%
76 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Stach 2–2 Zdenek Kasinski Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5856.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stach
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stach 1160 vs Kasinski 1135
Stach
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stach 40% vs Kasinski 20%
Stach
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stach 40% vs Kasinski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stach -2 · Kasinski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Stach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasinski form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStach 1.666 / Kasinski 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Stach)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13237521
Stach1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 31 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it73% 22 of 30
Kasinski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 6 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back30% 3 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStach2wins
AwayKasinski2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStach66.7%2 of 3
AwayKasinskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stach3Kasinski1n = 4Stach took 3 of 4
S2Stach1Kasinski3n = 4Kasinski took 3 of 4
S3Stach3Kasinski1n = 4Stach took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricStachKasinskiS − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match36.535.2+1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStachKasinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 155 vs 60 / 13851%43.5%79 / 155 vs 60 / 138Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StachStach 1.67/Kasinski 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kasinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 1 · 16:30V. Stach351311113Z. Kasinski2511680
LSep 20 · 11:00V. Stach4111211982Z. Kasinski42711211113
WSep 13 · 13:07V. Stach4517611113Z. Kasinski411511961
LSep 13 · 11:00V. Stach259970Z. Kasinski331111113
V. Stach10
LOct 4 · 15:30M. Vrabec2.0091111113V. Stach1.73117881LOct 3 · 01:30V. Stach1.67119391L. Havrda2.1061111113LOct 3 · 00:30J. Cernik2.101111113V. Stach1.679090WOct 2 · 23:30J. Potensky2.10112134102V. Stach1.678111111123LOct 2 · 22:30V. Stach1.3611118582J. Martinek3.00851111113WOct 1 · 17:30M. Vaclavik1.6041121162V. Stach2.20117114113WOct 1 · 16:30V. Stach1.801311113Z. Kasinski1.9111680WOct 1 · 15:00V. Stach1.83116115113J. Cernik1.8371191192LOct 1 · 14:00M. Vaclavik1.53611116123V. Stach2.38116311102LSep 28 · 02:58M. Vaclavik1.831113113V. Stach1.8381140
Z. Kasinski10
WOct 4 · 15:00Z. Kasinski1.83711711113D. Mutl1.8311511562WOct 1 · 16:59J. Cernik1.50111211692Z. Kasinski2.50414911113LOct 1 · 16:30V. Stach1.801311113Z. Kasinski1.9111680LOct 1 · 15:30Z. Kasinski2.2510570M. Vaclavik1.571211113LOct 1 · 14:30J. Cernik2.6381211123Z. Kasinski1.4411107101LSep 26 · 13:30M. Vaclavik1.7011118133Z. Kasinski2.028411111WSep 26 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.8081111103M. Vrabec1.91112341LSep 26 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.331711117102J. Cernik3.25194911123WSep 26 · 10:00M. Vaclavik2.3851111582Z. Kasinski1.53117611113LSep 20 · 13:30M. Syroha1.481111133Z. Kasinski2.4576110
Upcoming Matches
V. Stach
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Z. Kasinski
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