TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Hyrsl vs Milan Vrabec 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1148111012911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:58 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeJiri Hyrsl to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Hyrsl above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Jiri Hyrsl at 63.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Hyrsl 7–1 Milan Vrabec Milan Vrabec has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5863.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 6.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hyrsl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Hyrsl
Wrong
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hyrsl 1080 vs Vrabec 1183
Vrabec
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hyrsl 40% vs Vrabec 60%
Vrabec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hyrsl 30% vs Vrabec 60%
Vrabec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hyrsl -1 · Vrabec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Hyrsl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHyrsl 1.444 / Vrabec 2.625
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Hyrsl)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238856
Hyrsl1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 18 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Vrabec2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog26% won 25 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHyrsl7wins
AwayVrabec1wins
2 of 8 to a deciderHyrsl leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHyrsl100%7 of 7
AwayVrabecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hyrsl7Vrabec1n = 8Hyrsl took 7 of 8
S2Hyrsl6Vrabec2n = 8Hyrsl took 6 of 8
S3Hyrsl3Vrabec5n = 8Vrabec took 5 of 8
S4Hyrsl3Vrabec1n = 4Hyrsl took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricHyrslVrabecH − VBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match38.830.9+7.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHyrslVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 130 vs 180 / 35240%51.1%52 / 130 vs 180 / 352Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HyrslHyrsl 1.44/Vrabec 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Hyrsl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 19 · 07:00J. Hyrsl46111149113M. Vrabec4084111162
LAug 14 · 14:00J. Hyrsl227780M. Vrabec331111113
WMay 31 · 07:00J. Hyrsl361411113M. Vrabec2612680
WMay 30 · 09:30J. Hyrsl331111113M. Vrabec185490
WMay 30 · 06:00J. Hyrsl51119911113M. Vrabec4141111872
WMay 17 · 08:30J. Hyrsl45111112113M. Vrabec30731461
WMay 3 · 08:00J. Hyrsl331111113M. Vrabec225890
WApr 19 · 08:00J. Hyrsl44111210113M. Vrabec378101271
J. Hyrsl10
WOct 4 · 08:59J. Hyrsl1.221111113J. Strnad4.006880LOct 4 · 07:30D. Cupec2.00511311113J. Hyrsl1.7311711792WOct 4 · 06:00J. Hyrsl1.2811411113J. Strnad3.50711771WSep 20 · 08:58J. Cernik1.73511691J. Hyrsl2.0011411113LSep 20 · 08:30J. Hyrsl1.8067111182J. Martinek1.91111168113LSep 20 · 07:00J. Hyrsl1.83111110772J. Cernik1.83671211113LSep 20 · 06:00V. Stach1.80111199113J. Hyrsl1.9194111152LSep 19 · 08:59L. Novotny1.5781111113J. Hyrsl2.25118451LSep 19 · 08:30J. Hyrsl2.00114771L. Novotny1.7381111113WSep 19 · 07:00J. Hyrsl1.44111149113M. Vrabec2.6384111162
M. Vrabec10
LOct 4 · 09:28M. Vrabec1.913550D. Cupec1.801111113WOct 4 · 07:00J. Strnad2.755750M. Vrabec1.401111113LOct 4 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.533890D. Cupec2.381111113WSep 30 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.3611611113J. Cernik3.00911771WSep 30 · 08:30J. Potensky1.911110651M. Vrabec1.8041211113LSep 30 · 07:30M. Vrabec1.36111186112J. Cernik3.00591111133WSep 30 · 06:30D. Mutl2.3891170M. Vrabec1.531113113WSep 26 · 13:04M. Vrabec1.3511711123J. Cernik2.909115101LSep 26 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.8081111103M. Vrabec1.91112341LSep 19 · 07:00J. Hyrsl1.44111149113M. Vrabec2.6384111162
Upcoming Matches
J. Hyrsl
Nothing scheduled
M. Vrabec
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