TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Vrabec vs Milan Smesny 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114311117118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:14 and never touched: 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Milan Vrabec @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · Milan Smesny below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 66 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Milan Vrabec at 61.3%
66 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 19–9 Milan Smesny Milan Smesny has won 9 of their 28 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 07:14Sent to Pro: Milan Vrabec @ 1.50 · Won
61.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 5.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vrabec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-9 in 28
Vrabec
Correct
gap of 10 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1166 vs Smesny 1210
Smesny
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 40% vs Smesny 80%
Smesny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 50% vs Smesny 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec -2 · Smesny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Vrabec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 1.50 / Smesny 2.50
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Vrabec)-5.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264710
Vrabec1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite72% won 76 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it90% 55 of 61
Smesny2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 19 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVrabec9wins
AwaySmesny1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVrabec leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabec88.9%8 of 9
AwaySmesnyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec9Smesny1n = 10Vrabec took 9 of 10
S2Vrabec7Smesny3n = 10Vrabec took 7 of 10
S3Vrabec5Smesny5n = 10split evenly
S4Vrabec4Smesny3n = 7Vrabec took 4 of 7
S5Vrabec3Smesny0n = 3Vrabec took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVrabecSmesnyV − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.733.7+6.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecSmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 360 vs 183 / 34751.1%52.7%184 / 360 vs 183 / 347Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecVrabec 1.50/Smesny 2.50
Hit
What we said
61.3%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Milan Vrabec @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
3–1
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 08:30M. Vrabec4112117113M. Smesny331041181
WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec3911116113M. Smesny32691161
WAug 3 · 09:30M. Vrabec331111113M. Smesny218670
WAug 3 · 07:30M. Vrabec511181110113M. Smesny4371151282
LJul 19 · 11:00M. Vrabec21112441M. Smesny3521111113
WJul 11 · 08:30M. Vrabec3851111113M. Smesny34118781
WJun 23 · 09:07M. Vrabec54119912133M. Smesny507111110112
WJun 23 · 06:00M. Vrabec53191148113M. Smesny51174111182
WJun 10 · 08:30M. Vrabec331111113M. Smesny219930
WMay 25 · 06:00M. Vrabec341111123M. Smesny1743100
M. Vrabec10
LOct 9 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.731191191D. Mutl2.0013117113LOct 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.73111199113M. Vrabec2.0086111142WOct 7 · 08:58M. Vrabec1.57711811113J. Potensky2.2511611772WOct 7 · 08:30J. Potensky2.10691141M. Vrabec1.6711114113LOct 7 · 07:30M. Vrabec3.75411521J. Svec1.2511711113LOct 7 · 06:30L. Novotny1.61891111113M. Vrabec2.2011114972WOct 4 · 16:59M. Vrabec1.721111113V. Stach2.005080WOct 4 · 16:30Z. Kasinski1.5711113642M. Vrabec2.25221111113WOct 4 · 15:30M. Vrabec2.0091111113V. Stach1.73117881LOct 4 · 14:30D. Mutl2.381215113M. Vrabec1.53101330
M. Smesny10
LOct 9 · 07:30M. Smesny2.75411581J. Grohsgott1.4011911113WOct 9 · 06:30D. Mutl1.4449111192M. Smesny2.63111194113WOct 7 · 09:30D. Tomasch2.63111177132M. Smesny1.44971111153WOct 7 · 08:00M. Smesny1.5011118133D. Tomasch2.506811111WOct 7 · 07:30C. Havrda2.201191081M. Smesny1.6161112113LOct 7 · 06:00M. Smesny1.833690J. Vrba1.831111113LOct 6 · 09:30M. Smesny1.3381191122L. Novotny3.25117115113WOct 6 · 08:30L. Novotny2.6381111342M. Smesny1.44119811113LOct 6 · 07:30M. Smesny3.00111171152J. Grohsgott1.36913116113WOct 6 · 06:30D. Tomasch2.00691451M. Smesny1.73111112113
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