TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ladislav Novotny vs Milan Vrabec 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811911114119117
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:25 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 92 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Ladislav Novotny at 58.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 9–3 Milan Vrabec Milan Vrabec has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2558.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Novotny
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1227 vs Vrabec 1169
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 80% vs Vrabec 60%
Novotny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 80% vs Vrabec 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +1 · Vrabec +3
Vrabec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Novotny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.615 / Vrabec 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Novotny)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13253427
Novotny1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 53 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Vrabec2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 04)
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 28 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny7wins
AwayVrabec3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny85.7%6 of 7
AwayVrabec66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny7Vrabec3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S2Novotny6Vrabec4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S3Novotny8Vrabec2n = 10Novotny took 8 of 10
S4Novotny1Vrabec4n = 5Vrabec took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyVrabecN − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.932.2+5.7per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 398 vs 182 / 35650.3%51.1%200 / 398 vs 182 / 356Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.61/Vrabec 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 06:30L. Novotny50891111113M. Vrabec4211114972
LSep 19 · 06:30L. Novotny381171371M. Vrabec4691115113
WSep 6 · 07:30L. Novotny391711113M. Vrabec2815490
LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny4212101371M. Vrabec48141211113
WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny331111113M. Vrabec209560
LJul 25 · 09:30L. Novotny329101121M. Vrabec4311129113
WJul 25 · 08:30L. Novotny45121156113M. Vrabec44104111182
WJun 27 · 07:30L. Novotny331111113M. Vrabec197840
WJun 23 · 08:00L. Novotny341211113M. Vrabec1710340
WJun 13 · 06:00L. Novotny331111113M. Vrabec155460
L. Novotny10
WOct 7 · 07:00J. Potensky2.5010670L. Novotny1.501211113WOct 6 · 09:30M. Smesny1.3381191122L. Novotny3.25117115113LOct 6 · 08:30L. Novotny2.6381111342M. Smesny1.44119811113WOct 6 · 07:00L. Novotny1.6161111113D. Tomasch2.20115971WOct 6 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.571111101162L. Novotny2.25136127113WOct 5 · 09:30J. Potensky2.5011861122L. Novotny1.50811116113WOct 5 · 08:00L. Novotny1.5311116113J. Potensky2.38961131LOct 5 · 07:30L. Madle1.671111113L. Novotny2.105780WOct 5 · 06:00L. Novotny3.2511118113J. Svec1.33381161WOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231
M. Vrabec10
LOct 7 · 07:30M. Vrabec3.75411521J. Svec1.2511711113WOct 4 · 16:59M. Vrabec1.721111113V. Stach2.005080WOct 4 · 16:30Z. Kasinski1.5711113642M. Vrabec2.25221111113WOct 4 · 15:30M. Vrabec2.0091111113V. Stach1.73117881LOct 4 · 14:30D. Mutl2.381215113M. Vrabec1.53101330LOct 4 · 09:28M. Vrabec1.913550D. Cupec1.801111113WOct 4 · 08:00J. Hyrsl1.441181091M. Vrabec2.6341112113WOct 4 · 07:00J. Strnad2.755750M. Vrabec1.401111113LOct 4 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.533890D. Cupec2.381111113WSep 30 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.3611611113J. Cernik3.00911771
Upcoming Matches
L. Novotny
Nothing scheduled
M. Vrabec
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