TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Potensky vs Ladislav Novotny 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012611711––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Potensky above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 57 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Ladislav Novotny at 63.3%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jan Potensky 0–5 Ladislav Novotny Jan Potensky has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5763.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Novotny
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potensky 1143 vs Novotny 1227
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potensky 40% vs Novotny 80%
Novotny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potensky 40% vs Novotny 80%
Novotny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potensky -3 · Novotny +2
Potensky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Novotny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotensky 2.50 / Novotny 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Novotny)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13255025
Potensky2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 44 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Novotny1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 53 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePotensky0wins
AwayNovotny5wins
1 of 5 to a deciderNovotny leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotenskyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNovotny100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potensky1Novotny4n = 5Novotny took 4 of 5
S2Potensky0Novotny5n = 5Novotny took 5 of 5
S3Potensky2Novotny3n = 5Novotny took 3 of 5
S4Potensky1Novotny2n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricPotenskyNovotnyP − NBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match28.238.4−10.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotenskyNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 474 vs 200 / 39847.1%50.3%223 / 474 vs 200 / 398Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyPotensky 2.50/Novotny 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 7 · 07:00J. Potensky2310670L. Novotny341211113
LOct 5 · 09:30J. Potensky3811861122L. Novotny47811116113
LOct 5 · 08:00J. Potensky29961131L. Novotny3911116113
LOct 1 · 09:29J. Potensky227780L. Novotny331111113
LOct 1 · 07:00J. Potensky29761151L. Novotny3911116113
J. Potensky10
LOct 7 · 06:00J. Svec1.61116117113J. Potensky2.2041141192LOct 5 · 09:30J. Potensky2.5011861122L. Novotny1.50811116113LOct 5 · 08:00L. Novotny1.5311116113J. Potensky2.38961131WOct 5 · 07:00J. Svec1.6111891172J. Potensky2.20711117113WOct 5 · 06:30J. Potensky1.831110119113L. Madle1.8341291192LOct 3 · 03:30L. Havrda1.731211113J. Potensky2.0010260LOct 3 · 02:30L. Havrda1.911111113J. Potensky1.807950WOct 3 · 01:00J. Martinek2.3810650J. Potensky1.531211113LOct 2 · 23:30J. Potensky2.10112134102V. Stach1.678111111123WOct 2 · 22:00J. Potensky1.4011311113J. Cernik2.75511731
L. Novotny10
WOct 7 · 06:30L. Novotny1.61891111113M. Vrabec2.2011114972WOct 6 · 09:30M. Smesny1.3381191122L. Novotny3.25117115113LOct 6 · 08:30L. Novotny2.6381111342M. Smesny1.44119811113WOct 6 · 07:00L. Novotny1.6161111113D. Tomasch2.20115971WOct 6 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.571111101162L. Novotny2.25136127113WOct 5 · 09:30J. Potensky2.5011861122L. Novotny1.50811116113WOct 5 · 08:00L. Novotny1.5311116113J. Potensky2.38961131LOct 5 · 07:30L. Madle1.671111113L. Novotny2.105780WOct 5 · 06:00L. Novotny3.2511118113J. Svec1.33381161WOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231
Upcoming Matches
J. Potensky
L. Novotny
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