TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Grohsgott vs Ladislav Novotny 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131161012117611
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:55 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Grohsgott to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 98 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Jiri Grohsgott at 58.9%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 0–3 Ladislav Novotny Jiri Grohsgott has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5558.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Grohsgott
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Novotny
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1174 vs Novotny 1194
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 60% vs Novotny 80%
Novotny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 40% vs Novotny 60%
Novotny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott +2 · Novotny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Grohsgott) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 1.571 / Novotny 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Grohsgott)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13247457
Grohsgott1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 05)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 142 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it93% 80 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it81% 109 of 135
Novotny2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 38 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeGrohsgott0wins
AwayNovotny3wins
2 of 3 to a deciderNovotny leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott1Novotny2n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
S2Grohsgott1Novotny2n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
S3Grohsgott0Novotny3n = 3Novotny took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricGrohsgottNovotnyG − NBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.044.0−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime732 / 1498 vs 196 / 39348.9%49.9%732 / 1498 vs 196 / 393Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottGrohsgott 1.57/Novotny 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 6 · 06:00J. Grohsgott491111101162L. Novotny49136127113
LOct 1 · 06:00J. Grohsgott4511591192L. Novotny48611119113
LJan 10 · 08:30J. Grohsgott2311660L. Novotny351311113
J. Grohsgott10
WOct 5 · 03:00J. Grohsgott1.671111119123M. Syroha2.10138711102WOct 5 · 02:00J. Cernik4.00118951J. Grohsgott1.2291111113LOct 5 · 00:30J. Grohsgott1.40116591D. Mutl2.7571111113WOct 4 · 23:00J. Grohsgott2.3811138113S. Mazanek1.535111161LOct 4 · 22:00M. Syroha2.00591112113J. Grohsgott1.73111171072LOct 2 · 02:30M. Vaclavik1.671111113J. Grohsgott2.108360LOct 2 · 01:00S. Mazanek1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.009360LOct 1 · 23:30J. Grohsgott1.57111188112M. Syroha2.25941111133LOct 1 · 22:00J. Grohsgott1.53711561A. Hejduk2.3811911113WOct 1 · 08:59A. Hejduk2.1011891342J. Grohsgott1.677111111113
L. Novotny10
WOct 5 · 09:30J. Potensky2.5011861122L. Novotny1.50811116113WOct 5 · 08:00L. Novotny1.5311116113J. Potensky2.38961131LOct 5 · 07:30L. Madle1.671111113L. Novotny2.105780WOct 5 · 06:00L. Novotny3.2511118113J. Svec1.33381161WOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231WOct 1 · 12:00J. Cernik2.005740L. Novotny1.731111113LOct 1 · 11:00C. Havrda2.7511811113L. Novotny1.40711841LOct 1 · 10:30L. Novotny1.8086110L. Madle1.911111133WOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny1.831111113J. Potensky1.837780LOct 1 · 08:30L. Novotny1.9181171172A. Hejduk1.80115117113
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