TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ladislav Novotny vs Jan Potensky 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119116611113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Jan Potensky below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 68 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Ladislav Novotny at 60.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 2–0 Jan Potensky Jan Potensky has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5760.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1161 vs Potensky 1187
Potensky
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Potensky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 60% vs Potensky 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -1 · Potensky +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Novotny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potensky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.533 / Potensky 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Novotny)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243760
Novotny1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 50 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Potensky2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 46 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNovotny2wins
AwayPotensky0wins
Novotny leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNovotnyPotenskyN − PBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match36.025.5+10.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyPotenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 392 vs 223 / 47049.7%47.5%195 / 392 vs 223 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.53/Potensky 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny331111113J. Potensky227780
WOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny3911116113J. Potensky29761151
L. Novotny10
LOct 5 · 07:30L. Madle1.671111113L. Novotny2.105780WOct 5 · 06:00L. Novotny3.2511118113J. Svec1.33381161WOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231WOct 1 · 12:00J. Cernik2.005740L. Novotny1.731111113LOct 1 · 11:00C. Havrda2.7511811113L. Novotny1.40711841LOct 1 · 10:30L. Novotny1.8086110L. Madle1.911111133WOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny1.831111113J. Potensky1.837780LOct 1 · 08:30L. Novotny1.9181171172A. Hejduk1.80115117113WOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny2.2011116113J. Potensky1.61761151WOct 1 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.4011591192L. Novotny2.75611119113
J. Potensky10
WOct 5 · 07:00J. Svec1.6111891172J. Potensky2.20711117113WOct 5 · 06:30J. Potensky1.831110119113L. Madle1.8341291192LOct 3 · 03:30L. Havrda1.731211113J. Potensky2.0010260LOct 3 · 02:30L. Havrda1.911111113J. Potensky1.807950WOct 3 · 01:00J. Martinek2.3810650J. Potensky1.531211113LOct 2 · 23:30J. Potensky2.10112134102V. Stach1.678111111123WOct 2 · 22:00J. Potensky1.4011311113J. Cernik2.75511731LOct 1 · 09:29L. Novotny1.831111113J. Potensky1.837780WOct 1 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.61661181J. Potensky2.2011113113LOct 1 · 07:00L. Novotny2.2011116113J. Potensky1.61761151
Upcoming Matches
L. Novotny
J. Potensky
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