TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Grohsgott vs David Tomasch 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611116711117118
David Tomasch
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:58 and never touched: 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJiri Grohsgott to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · David Tomasch below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Jiri Grohsgott at 55.4%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 11–17 David Tomasch Jiri Grohsgott has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5855.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Grohsgott
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-17 in 28
Tomasch
Wrong
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1186 vs Tomasch 1166
Grohsgott
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 60% vs Tomasch 20%
Grohsgott
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 40% vs Tomasch 20%
Grohsgott
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott +1 · Tomasch -3
Tomasch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Grohsgott) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomasch form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 1.666 / Tomasch 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Grohsgott)-4.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248646
Grohsgott1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 142 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it93% 80 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it81% 109 of 135
Tomasch2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 10 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott4wins
AwayTomasch6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTomasch leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott60%3 of 5
AwayTomasch80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott5Tomasch5n = 10split evenly
S2Grohsgott6Tomasch4n = 10Grohsgott took 6 of 10
S3Grohsgott5Tomasch5n = 10split evenly
S4Grohsgott2Tomasch5n = 7Tomasch took 5 of 7
S5Grohsgott2Tomasch3n = 5Tomasch took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottTomaschG − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.339.7−1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottTomaschBasisWin rate · lifetime733 / 1498 vs 64 / 13448.9%47.8%733 / 1498 vs 64 / 134Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottGrohsgott 1.67/Tomasch 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grohsgott won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 20 · 02:00J. Grohsgott331111113D. Tomasch218670
LMay 13 · 09:30J. Grohsgott44741112102D. Tomasch501111610123
WMay 13 · 07:30J. Grohsgott47711117113D. Tomasch4411891152
LMay 12 · 06:30J. Grohsgott48811111082D. Tomasch50117912113
WMay 6 · 23:30J. Grohsgott331111113D. Tomasch269890
WApr 24 · 11:30J. Grohsgott47118611113D. Tomasch3831111672
LApr 24 · 09:30J. Grohsgott331111651D. Tomasch3941311113
LApr 24 · 06:28J. Grohsgott25104110D. Tomasch361211133
LJan 29 · 07:00J. Grohsgott4014118252D. Tomasch501251111113
LJan 28 · 02:30J. Grohsgott336111061D. Tomasch4311912113
J. Grohsgott10
WOct 6 · 08:58J. Grohsgott1.831111113D. Tomasch1.836670WOct 6 · 07:30M. Smesny3.00111171152J. Grohsgott1.36913116113LOct 6 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.571111101162L. Novotny2.25136127113WOct 5 · 03:00J. Grohsgott1.671111119123M. Syroha2.10138711102WOct 5 · 02:00J. Cernik4.00118951J. Grohsgott1.2291111113LOct 5 · 00:30J. Grohsgott1.40116591D. Mutl2.7571111113WOct 4 · 23:00J. Grohsgott2.3811138113S. Mazanek1.535111161LOct 4 · 22:00M. Syroha2.00591112113J. Grohsgott1.73111171072LOct 2 · 02:30M. Vaclavik1.671111113J. Grohsgott2.108360LOct 2 · 01:00S. Mazanek1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.009360
D. Tomasch10
LOct 6 · 08:58J. Grohsgott1.831111113D. Tomasch1.836670LOct 6 · 07:00L. Novotny1.6161111113D. Tomasch2.20115971LOct 6 · 06:30D. Tomasch2.00691451M. Smesny1.73111112113LSep 26 · 08:58D. Tomasch1.229460J. Cernik4.001111113WSep 26 · 08:00D. Tomasch1.301111113J. Cernik3.408260LSep 26 · 07:30J. Martinek1.7311711133D. Tomasch2.005118111LSep 26 · 06:00D. Tomasch1.67119661L. Novotny2.1091111113LJun 19 · 02:00D. Tomasch2.7511630S. Mazanek1.401311113LJun 19 · 01:00D. Tomasch1.911121171J. Potensky1.8013115113WJun 19 · 00:00P. Kulhanek1.6111101161D. Tomasch2.2011213113
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