TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Grohsgott vs Miloslav Lubas 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11511711131012118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMiloslav Lubas to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Miloslav Lubas below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 9-8
Point 97 set 5, 9-8 · our read held Miloslav Lubas at 56.5%
97 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 33–34 Miloslav Lubas Jiri Grohsgott has won 33 of their 67 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2756.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lubas
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-34 in 67
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1187 vs Lubas 1285
Lubas
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 20% vs Lubas 40%
Lubas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 40% vs Lubas 70%
Lubas
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott -4 · Lubas -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Lubas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lubas form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 2.00 / Lubas 1.727
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Lubas)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269686
Grohsgott2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 125 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back21% 40 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 114
Lubas1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 21 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott5wins
AwayLubas5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott60%3 of 5
AwayLubas60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott5Lubas5n = 10split evenly
S2Grohsgott5Lubas5n = 10split evenly
S3Grohsgott3Lubas7n = 10Lubas took 7 of 10
S4Grohsgott5Lubas4n = 9Grohsgott took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottLubasG − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.036.7−1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottLubasBasisWin rate · lifetime729 / 1488 vs 161 / 33049%48.8%729 / 1488 vs 161 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LubasGrohsgott 2.00/Lubas 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Lubas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grohsgott won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 21:28J. Grohsgott28411851M. Lubas4211911113
WSep 20 · 18:00J. Grohsgott3811124113M. Lubas389101181
WSep 3 · 18:00J. Grohsgott4211119113M. Lubas33581191
LAug 29 · 14:00J. Grohsgott165470M. Lubas331111113
WAug 21 · 12:59J. Grohsgott49871111123M. Lubas44111166102
LAug 21 · 12:30J. Grohsgott311110551M. Lubas4391211113
LAug 13 · 18:30J. Grohsgott321161051M. Lubas4391112113
WJul 15 · 20:58J. Grohsgott43111011113M. Lubas25312461
LJul 15 · 18:00J. Grohsgott29311871M. Lubas3611311113
WJul 12 · 16:30J. Grohsgott4291111113M. Lubas30117481
J. Grohsgott10
LOct 10 · 10:30L. Mikyska1.8371111113J. Grohsgott1.83112691LOct 9 · 13:00M. Vaclavik1.7351111113J. Grohsgott2.00114691LOct 9 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.73111211113J. Grohsgott2.001101391LOct 9 · 11:00D. Mutl2.2091511113J. Grohsgott1.611113691WOct 9 · 10:30J. Grohsgott2.251311113V. Hruska Sr1.5711690WOct 9 · 09:30J. Grohsgott1.73711911113D. Mutl2.0011511642LOct 9 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.50911101192D. Mutl2.50119129113WOct 9 · 07:30M. Smesny2.75411581J. Grohsgott1.4011911113WOct 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.73111199113M. Vrabec2.0086111142LOct 7 · 03:00J. Grohsgott1.73211241M. Syroha2.0011811113
M. Lubas10
LOct 10 · 10:00M. Lubas1.73371181M. Syroha2.0011118113LOct 1 · 21:30M. Barta1.4016129113M. Lubas2.7514101131LOct 1 · 20:30M. Lubas2.38101170M. Barta1.531213113WOct 1 · 19:00M. Lubas2.3811811113M. Varcl1.53711761WOct 1 · 18:00M. Syroha1.807770M. Lubas1.911111113WSep 25 · 17:30M. Lubas1.731111113L. Havrda2.006530WSep 25 · 16:00L. Havrda1.80981481M. Lubas1.91111112113WSep 25 · 15:00J. Svec2.2591080M. Lubas1.571112113WSep 25 · 14:30M. Lubas1.911110118143V. Stach1.80912911122WSep 20 · 21:28J. Grohsgott1.83411851M. Lubas1.8311911113
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