Ladislav Novotny vs Milan Smesny 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Ladislav Novotny

Home

2.50

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

116711117116––

Milan Smesny

Away

1.50

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:56 and never touched: 61.9% is still 61.9%

Graded at full time

Milan Smesny to win

61.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

Sent to Pro: Milan Smesny @ 1.50 · Lost

How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Milan Smesny below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 11-6

Point 70 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Milan Smesny at 61.9%

70 points played in total.

H2H Ladislav Novotny 7–18 Milan Smesny Ladislav Novotny has won 7 of their 25 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Smesny

Novotny 2.50/Smesny 1.50

Miss

What we said

61.9%

Smesny · sealed before the serve

Sent to Pro: Milan Smesny @ 1.50 · Lost

What happened

3–1

Novotny won

The pick

Sealed 05:56

Sent to Pro: Milan Smesny @ 1.50 · Lost

61.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 4.8pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Smesny

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

7-18 in 25

Smesny

Wrong

gap of 11 in 25, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Novotny 1211 vs Smesny 1167

Novotny

Correct

both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Novotny 60% vs Smesny 40%

Novotny

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Novotny 70% vs Smesny 50%

Novotny

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Novotny -2 · Smesny -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.

Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Smesny) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Smesny: form 40%, the price implies 67%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNovotny 2.50 / Smesny 1.50

Signal prob.38% / 62%

Edge (Smesny)-4.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeNovotny3wins

AwaySmesny7wins

4 of 10 to a deciderSmesny leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeNovotny60%3 of 5

AwaySmesny100%5 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Novotny5Smesny5n = 10split evenly

S2Novotny2Smesny8n = 10Smesny took 8 of 10

S3Novotny7Smesny3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10

S4Novotny2Smesny5n = 7Smesny took 5 of 7

S5Novotny1Smesny3n = 4Smesny took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricNovotnySmesnyN − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.338.5−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricNovotnySmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 397 vs 182 / 35050.1%52%199 / 397 vs 182 / 350Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.3per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13279022

Novotny2.50

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 07)

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog45% won 40 of 89

Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 46

Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30

Smesny1.50

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite64% won 53 of 83

Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26

Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40

Ladislav Novotny vs Milan Smesny 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Ladislav Novotny vs Milan Smesny 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.