TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Muska vs Matej Holub 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 42 - B2 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811114211811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:56 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeJan Muska to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Muska above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 66 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jan Muska at 64.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jan Muska 2–1 Matej Holub Matej Holub has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5664.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Muska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muska 1655 vs Holub 1595
Muska
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muska 40% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muska 40% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muska +2 · Holub -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Muska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuska 1.444 / Holub 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Muska)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277139
Muska1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 16 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Holub2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 46 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back32% 17 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMuska2wins
AwayHolub1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMuska leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muska2Holub1n = 3Muska took 2 of 3
S2Muska2Holub1n = 3Muska took 2 of 3
S3Muska2Holub1n = 3Muska took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMuskaHolubM − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.734.3+5.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuskaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 99 vs 131 / 23947.5%54.8%47 / 99 vs 131 / 239Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MuskaMuska 1.44/Holub 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Muska · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 11 · 12:05J. Muska29811281M. Holub3711411113
WAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska561191114113M. Holub4341151672
WAug 19 · 12:35J. Muska341211113M. Holub2310940
J. Muska10
WOct 11 · 11:05J. Muska1.531111113R. Fnukal2.387780WOct 11 · 10:05J. Muska1.611313113K. Lahodny2.20111180LOct 2 · 17:15J. Ruzicka5.001071111123J. Muska1.14121198102LOct 2 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.91111812133J. Muska1.8061614111LOct 2 · 15:35J. Muska2.005670J. Hitzger1.731111113LOct 2 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80121175113J. Muska1.91105111142LAug 27 · 16:35J. Ruzicka2.201211113J. Muska1.6110960WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191WAug 26 · 15:35J. Muska1.73981112113M. Mastera2.00111191082LAug 26 · 14:05D. Lengal1.73661111113J. Muska2.0011118962
M. Holub10
LOct 11 · 11:35K. Lahodny1.91111111113M. Holub1.80451341LOct 11 · 10:35M. Holub1.7310111181R. Fnukal2.0012913113WOct 10 · 09:10M. Holub3.25911814113T. Palan1.33114111262WOct 10 · 08:35T. Palan1.367111071M. Holub3.0011612113WOct 10 · 07:35M. Holub2.001115613123J. Ruzicka1.7313131111102LOct 10 · 06:05T. Bartik1.801111113M. Holub1.915570LOct 9 · 08:05T. Trnka1.36111011113M. Holub3.00412751WOct 9 · 08:01T. Trnka3.0011841192M. Holub1.36311115113WOct 9 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.20118481M. Holub1.6131111113WOct 4 · 13:05M. Mastera1.33911111072M. Holub3.25115912113
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