TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Matej Holub vs Jan Ruzicka 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 41 - B1 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113151361113111210
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:30 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Jan Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 115 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Jan Ruzicka at 54.9%
115 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 7–8 Jan Ruzicka Matej Holub has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3054.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1602 vs Ruzicka 1626
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Ruzicka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 40% vs Ruzicka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -2 · Ruzicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.00 / Ruzicka 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Ruzicka)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13271751
Holub2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 43 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back29% 15 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Ruzicka1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 102 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it85% 82 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub6wins
AwayRuzicka4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%4 of 4
AwayRuzicka66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub4Ruzicka6n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S2Holub6Ruzicka4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Holub6Ruzicka4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Holub2Ruzicka2n = 4split evenly
S5Holub2Ruzicka1n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubRuzickaH − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.836.7−1.9per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 235 vs 256 / 48454.9%52.9%129 / 235 vs 256 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaHolub 2.00/Ruzicka 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 07:35M. Holub571115613123J. Ruzicka5813131111102
LSep 25 · 13:35M. Holub227870J. Ruzicka331111113
WSep 25 · 12:05M. Holub43911111113J. Ruzicka4011731182
LSep 10 · 12:05M. Holub3741113182J. Ruzicka521181111113
WSep 3 · 16:35M. Holub351113113J. Ruzicka2471160
WAug 13 · 12:05M. Holub331111113J. Ruzicka246990
WAug 6 · 14:05M. Holub341211113J. Ruzicka2710890
LAug 2 · 06:05M. Holub217860J. Ruzicka331111113
WAug 1 · 09:09M. Holub49111314113J. Ruzicka438151281
LAug 1 · 08:05M. Holub172960J. Ruzicka331111113
M. Holub10
WOct 10 · 08:35T. Palan1.367111071M. Holub3.0011612113LOct 10 · 06:05T. Bartik1.801111113M. Holub1.915570LOct 9 · 08:05T. Trnka1.36111011113M. Holub3.00412751WOct 9 · 08:01T. Trnka3.0011841192M. Holub1.36311115113WOct 9 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.20118481M. Holub1.6131111113WOct 4 · 13:05M. Mastera1.33911111072M. Holub3.25115912113LOct 4 · 12:35T. Trnka1.281111113M. Holub3.508640LOct 4 · 11:35M. Holub2.38711691O. Stehlik1.5311611113LOct 4 · 10:05M. Mastera1.531111113M. Holub2.385580LOct 2 · 13:09M. Holub2.5012113872T. Bartik1.471091111113
J. Ruzicka10
WOct 10 · 08:05T. Bartik1.53111016121J. Ruzicka2.3871218143WOct 10 · 06:35J. Ruzicka2.75111112113T. Palan1.40971481LOct 6 · 17:33R. Neterda1.8011121111173J. Ruzicka1.91131439152LOct 6 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.57541341R. Neterda2.25111111113WOct 6 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.4011177113M. Flesar2.755151141WOct 6 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.441111113J. Manhal Jr2.638680LOct 4 · 17:03J. Ruzicka1.33611111552M. Flesar3.251113613113LOct 4 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.8314120J. Lovl1.831111143WOct 4 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.441111113M. Flesar2.638570LOct 4 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.44691191M. Chmelicek2.6311117113
Upcoming Matches
M. Holub
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J. Ruzicka
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