TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Muska vs Jakub Hitzger 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611711––––
Jakub Hitzger
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Hitzger to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Muska above · Jakub Hitzger below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 51 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Jakub Hitzger at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jan Muska 1–1 Jakub Hitzger Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hitzger
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Muska 1671 vs Hitzger 1791
Hitzger
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muska 40% vs Hitzger 60%
Hitzger
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muska 50% vs Hitzger 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Muska -2 · Hitzger +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hitzger) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuska 2.00 / Hitzger 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hitzger)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232238
Muska2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 23 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Hitzger1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 17 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMuska1wins
AwayHitzger1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricMuskaHitzgerM − HBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match30.035.5−5.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuskaHitzgerBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 94 vs 75 / 11647.9%64.7%45 / 94 vs 75 / 116Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.640.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HitzgerMuska 2.00/Hitzger 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hitzger · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hitzger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 2 · 15:35J. Muska185670J. Hitzger331111113
WJul 5 · 11:05J. Muska4213126113J. Hitzger3811101161
J. Muska10
LOct 2 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80121175113J. Muska1.91105111142LAug 27 · 16:35J. Ruzicka2.201211113J. Muska1.6110960WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191WAug 26 · 15:35J. Muska1.73981112113M. Mastera2.00111191082LAug 26 · 14:05D. Lengal1.73661111113J. Muska2.0011118962LAug 25 · 17:40S. Vyskocil1.83114127113J. Muska1.83711101192WAug 25 · 16:05J. Muska1.731111113J. Hanak2.005580LAug 25 · 15:05J. Muska1.5381111692S. Vyskocil2.38117911113WAug 25 · 14:05J. Muska1.67111147113P. Chvatal2.1095111182WAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska1.361191114113M. Holub3.0041151672
J. Hitzger10
WOct 2 · 16:05O. Stehlik2.0011611482J. Hitzger1.73511611113WOct 2 · 14:35J. Hitzger1.571211113J. Ruzicka2.2510550LOct 2 · 13:34D. Lengal1.831111113J. Hitzger1.838780LOct 2 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.80611571D. Lengal1.9111611113WOct 2 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.73111211113T. Bartik2.00614831WOct 2 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.401211113M. Holub2.7510650LSep 28 · 09:50J. Hitzger1.506119101M. Mastera2.5011411123LSep 28 · 08:05J. Hitzger1.577101191O. Polak2.2511127113WSep 28 · 07:05J. Hitzger1.7381111113M. Mastera2.00115891WSep 28 · 06:05J. Hitzger1.671111139113J. Ruzicka2.10134111152
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