TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Hitzger vs Jakub Ruzicka 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Jakub Hitzger
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210115115––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:33 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Hitzger to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Hitzger above · Jakub Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Jakub Hitzger at 58.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Hitzger 1–0 Jakub Ruzicka Jakub Ruzicka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3358.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hitzger
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hitzger 1761 vs Ruzicka 1673
Hitzger
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hitzger 40% vs Ruzicka 60%
Ruzicka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hitzger 40% vs Ruzicka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hitzger -2 · Ruzicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Hitzger) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHitzger 1.571 / Ruzicka 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Hitzger)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232286
Hitzger1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 17 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Ruzicka2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 36 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back15% 7 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHitzger1wins
AwayRuzicka0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderHitzger leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHitzgerRuzickaH − RBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match55.044.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHitzgerRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 113 vs 54 / 13563.7%40%72 / 113 vs 54 / 135Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match40.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HitzgerHitzger 1.57/Ruzicka 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Hitzger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hitzger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 28 · 06:05J. Hitzger551111139113J. Ruzicka44134111152
J. Hitzger10
LOct 2 · 13:34D. Lengal1.831111113J. Hitzger1.838780LOct 2 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.80611571D. Lengal1.9111611113WOct 2 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.73111211113T. Bartik2.00614831WOct 2 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.401211113M. Holub2.7510650LSep 28 · 09:50J. Hitzger1.506119101M. Mastera2.5011411123LSep 28 · 08:05J. Hitzger1.577101191O. Polak2.2511127113WSep 28 · 07:05J. Hitzger1.7381111113M. Mastera2.00115891WSep 28 · 06:05J. Hitzger1.671111139113J. Ruzicka2.10134111152LSep 26 · 13:55J. Hitzger1.9111991192O. Stehlik1.80811115113LSep 26 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.73112971O. Stehlik2.0021111113
J. Ruzicka10
LOct 2 · 15:05O. Stehlik1.67114711123J. Ruzicka2.10711119102WSep 28 · 09:20J. Ruzicka2.151111113O. Polak1.618760LSep 28 · 08:35M. Mastera1.91511411113J. Ruzicka1.8011911232WSep 28 · 07:35J. Ruzicka2.001014119113O. Polak1.73121281162LSep 28 · 06:05J. Hitzger1.671111139113J. Ruzicka2.10134111152WSep 20 · 13:35O. Polak1.338116101J. Ruzicka3.2511811123WSep 20 · 12:35A. Veliiev1.807890J. Ruzicka1.911111113LSep 20 · 11:35J. Ruzicka1.80115941O. Polak1.9161111113LSep 20 · 10:05O. Stehlik1.73111111113J. Ruzicka2.00513951LSep 18 · 13:04J. Ruzicka2.5091090F. Karel1.501112113
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