TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Oldrich Stehlik vs Jakub Ruzicka 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1174117111191210
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:00 and never touched: 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeOldrich Stehlik to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOldrich Stehlik above · Jakub Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 93 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Oldrich Stehlik at 58.2%
93 points played in total.
H2H Oldrich Stehlik 6–2 Jakub Ruzicka Jakub Ruzicka has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0058.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stehlik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Stehlik
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stehlik 1732 vs Ruzicka 1663
Stehlik
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stehlik 80% vs Ruzicka 40%
Stehlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stehlik 70% vs Ruzicka 40%
Stehlik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stehlik +4 · Ruzicka -1
Stehlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Stehlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stehlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStehlik 1.666 / Ruzicka 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Stehlik)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232606
Stehlik1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 43 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Ruzicka2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 36 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back15% 7 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStehlik6wins
AwayRuzicka2wins
2 of 8 to a deciderStehlik leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStehlik83.3%5 of 6
AwayRuzickan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stehlik6Ruzicka2n = 8Stehlik took 6 of 8
S2Stehlik4Ruzicka4n = 8split evenly
S3Stehlik5Ruzicka3n = 8Stehlik took 5 of 8
S4Stehlik3Ruzicka3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricStehlikRuzickaS − RBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match40.235.1+5.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStehlikRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 260 vs 54 / 13654.6%39.7%142 / 260 vs 54 / 136Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StehlikStehlik 1.67/Ruzicka 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Stehlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stehlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 20 · 10:05O. Stehlik44111111113J. Ruzicka32513951
WSep 17 · 18:35O. Stehlik331111113J. Ruzicka249960
LJul 9 · 17:40O. Stehlik38911991J. Ruzicka4011711113
WJul 9 · 15:35O. Stehlik44121011113J. Ruzicka351012941
WJul 4 · 09:40O. Stehlik45116116113J. Ruzicka4491171162
LJul 4 · 06:35O. Stehlik331148101J. Ruzicka4061111123
WJul 3 · 14:35O. Stehlik527111111123J. Ruzicka48118136102
WApr 25 · 12:35O. Stehlik331111113J. Ruzicka182790
O. Stehlik10
WOct 2 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80121175113J. Muska1.91105111142WSep 26 · 13:55J. Hitzger1.9111991192O. Stehlik1.80811115113WSep 26 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.73112971O. Stehlik2.0021111113WSep 26 · 11:35M. Holub2.10115671O. Stehlik1.6761111113LSep 26 · 10:35O. Stehlik2.2011711712O. Polak1.61811911113WSep 20 · 13:05O. Stehlik1.671111113A. Veliiev2.103960LSep 20 · 12:05O. Stehlik1.918960O. Polak1.801111113LSep 20 · 11:05O. Stehlik2.0013112672A. Veliiev1.731161111113WSep 20 · 10:05O. Stehlik1.73111111113J. Ruzicka2.00513951WSep 19 · 17:15M. Mastera2.007770O. Stehlik1.731111113
J. Ruzicka10
LOct 2 · 14:35J. Hitzger1.571211113J. Ruzicka2.2510550WSep 28 · 09:20J. Ruzicka2.151111113O. Polak1.618760LSep 28 · 08:35M. Mastera1.91511411113J. Ruzicka1.8011911232WSep 28 · 07:35J. Ruzicka2.001014119113O. Polak1.73121281162LSep 28 · 06:05J. Hitzger1.671111139113J. Ruzicka2.10134111152WSep 20 · 13:35O. Polak1.338116101J. Ruzicka3.2511811123WSep 20 · 12:35A. Veliiev1.807890J. Ruzicka1.911111113LSep 20 · 11:35J. Ruzicka1.80115941O. Polak1.9161111113LSep 20 · 10:05O. Stehlik1.73111111113J. Ruzicka2.00513951LSep 18 · 13:04J. Ruzicka2.5091090F. Karel1.501112113
Upcoming Matches
O. Stehlik
Nothing scheduled
J. Ruzicka
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