TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Krystof Lahodny vs Matej Holub 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 42 - B2 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141151113114––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:33 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrystof Lahodny above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 70 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Matej Holub at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Krystof Lahodny 0–2 Matej Holub Krystof Lahodny has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lahodny 1534 vs Holub 1597
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lahodny 40% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lahodny 60% vs Holub 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lahodny -3 · Holub -1
Lahodny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Holub) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lahodny form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLahodny 1.909 / Holub 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holub)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277190
Lahodny1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 17 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back23% 6 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Holub1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 38 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeLahodny0wins
AwayHolub2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderHolub leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricLahodnyHolubL − HBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match43.547.0−3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLahodnyHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 65 vs 130 / 23747.7%54.9%31 / 65 vs 130 / 237Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolubLahodny 1.91/Holub 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lahodny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 25 · 10:05K. Lahodny46910111152M. Holub52111299113
LAug 31 · 10:05K. Lahodny411198131M. Holub4251111153
K. Lahodny10
WOct 11 · 12:35R. Fnukal1.83119100K. Lahodny1.831311123LOct 11 · 10:05J. Muska1.611313113K. Lahodny2.20111180LSep 27 · 09:40K. Lahodny1.83311781J. Lovl1.8311911113LSep 27 · 08:35K. Lahodny1.67119661R. Vavricka2.1071111113WSep 27 · 07:05J. Lovl1.57117891K. Lahodny2.2591111113WSep 27 · 06:35M. Flesar1.6772111162K. Lahodny2.10111166113WSep 26 · 21:38K. Lahodny1.8013119113D. Hons1.911151161WSep 26 · 20:05D. Hons2.0011116352K. Lahodny1.73991111113WSep 26 · 19:35L. Vana1.91911491K. Lahodny1.8011611113WSep 26 · 18:35K. Lahodny1.83961111113J. Martin1.8311119952
M. Holub10
WOct 11 · 12:05J. Muska1.44811281M. Holub2.6311411113LOct 11 · 10:35M. Holub1.7310111181R. Fnukal2.0012913113WOct 10 · 09:10M. Holub3.25911814113T. Palan1.33114111262WOct 10 · 08:35T. Palan1.367111071M. Holub3.0011612113WOct 10 · 07:35M. Holub2.001115613123J. Ruzicka1.7313131111102LOct 10 · 06:05T. Bartik1.801111113M. Holub1.915570LOct 9 · 08:05T. Trnka1.36111011113M. Holub3.00412751WOct 9 · 08:01T. Trnka3.0011841192M. Holub1.36311115113WOct 9 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.20118481M. Holub1.6131111113WOct 4 · 13:05M. Mastera1.33911111072M. Holub3.25115912113
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