TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Matej Holub vs Radek Fnukal 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 42 - B2 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121191113811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:33 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Radek Fnukal below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 85 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Matej Holub at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 1–1 Radek Fnukal Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3354.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Holub 1597 vs Fnukal 1577
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Fnukal 40%
Holub
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 60% vs Fnukal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +3 · Fnukal -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Holub) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.727 / Fnukal 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holub)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13276177
Holub1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 10)
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 38 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Fnukal2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 14 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog59% won 10 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back44% 4 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHolub1wins
AwayFnukal1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricHolubFnukalH − FBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match42.042.5−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubFnukalBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 237 vs 72 / 14354.9%50.4%130 / 237 vs 72 / 143Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.73/Fnukal 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fnukal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 11 · 10:35M. Holub4010111181R. Fnukal4512913113
WJul 5 · 15:05M. Holub44113118113R. Fnukal4081171132
M. Holub10
WOct 11 · 12:05J. Muska1.4450M. Holub2.6391LOct 11 · 11:35K. Lahodny1.91111111113M. Holub1.80451341WOct 10 · 09:10M. Holub3.25911814113T. Palan1.33114111262WOct 10 · 08:35T. Palan1.367111071M. Holub3.0011612113WOct 10 · 07:35M. Holub2.001115613123J. Ruzicka1.7313131111102LOct 10 · 06:05T. Bartik1.801111113M. Holub1.915570LOct 9 · 08:05T. Trnka1.36111011113M. Holub3.00412751WOct 9 · 08:01T. Trnka3.0011841192M. Holub1.36311115113WOct 9 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.20118481M. Holub1.6131111113WOct 4 · 13:05M. Mastera1.33911111072M. Holub3.25115912113
R. Fnukal10
LOct 11 · 11:05J. Muska1.531111113R. Fnukal2.387780LSep 27 · 17:05R. Fnukal1.671111147102T. Palan2.10951611123LSep 27 · 16:05R. Fnukal2.106870P. Zivny1.671111113LSep 27 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.611169101D. Hons2.2051111123WSep 27 · 14:05R. Fnukal2.501111113T. Palan1.506480WSep 20 · 17:45R. Fnukal1.53117811113J. Lovl2.3861111892WSep 20 · 16:35R. Fnukal1.61116912113J. Martin2.20811111072WSep 20 · 15:05D. Hons2.2510111181R. Fnukal1.5712139113WSep 20 · 14:35J. Lovl2.501111612132R. Fnukal1.50881114153WSep 11 · 13:10R. Fitl1.67111011992R. Fnukal2.10912711113
Upcoming Matches
M. Holub
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R. Fnukal
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